Bitcoin is stabilising today above 86,000 dollars, rising by 0.7 percent after yesterday’s heavy selloff that saw a 4.5 percent decline at the close and more than 7 percent intraday.
Bitcoin’s recent stabilization is masking deeper fragility beneath the surface.
According to current market dynamics, whales continue to offload holdings, leverage reset remains incomplete, and no convincing signs of a bottom have emerged. The backdrop has also been clouded by the Bank of Japan’s tightening shock and rising concerns around Strategy’s balance-sheet risks, keeping downside pressure firmly in play.
Crypto’s inability to rebound alongside the broader rise in U.S. equities underscores how sentiment has decoupled from traditional risk assets. Even with improving appetite in tech stocks and strong performance across global indexes in general, digital assets remain stuck in their own structural downswing. This divergence points to a market wrestling with internal stress rather than macro headwinds alone.
Several structural factors continue to weigh on bitcoin’s outlook. According to BGeometrics, the number of whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC dropped to 1,918 addresses on Sunday, the lowest level since January 2024. Such consistent offloading from mid-to-large holders weakens any attempt at a sustainable price floor and reinforces the probability of deeper retracements.
Spot-market activity also reflects weakening conviction. Bitcoin on-balance volume on Coinbase continues to trend lower and is now approaching its weakest reading since April, suggesting distribution remains dominant.
At the same time, CoinGlass data shows futures open interest has fallen back to $124 billion, near July lows, and liquidation waves remain frequent enough to keep the leveraged reset far from complete.
Taken together, these factors indicate that a firm bottom has yet to form in my view.
External shocks are compounding the pressure. According to The Wall Street Journal, bitcoin’s slide accelerated after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda strengthened expectations for another rate increase later this month, reviving memories of the abrupt tightening in late 2022.
Analysts cited by the Journal noted that bitcoin is behaving as a leading barometer of risk sentiment, and its inability to stabilize has raised caution across markets entering December.
Concerns surrounding Strategy have added another destabilizing element. The company raised 1.44 billion dollars to shore up dividend and interest payments while buying an additional 130 bitcoin, bringing total holdings to about 650,000 BTC. Yet, as reported by the Journal, its stock has lost nearly half its value this year and now trades below the net asset value of its bitcoin holdings (aka mNAV), forcing the firm to cut its annual outlook dramatically and triggering discussions about potential bitcoin sales to meet obligations.
The possibility that Strategy could begin liquidating part of its bitcoin reserves has become a focal point among analysts. With its mNAV is a at the critical threshold of one and access to capital markets becoming more uncertain, some fear that forced sales could ignite a new wave of capitulation.
Such an event would risk marking the formal onset of a crypto winter 2.0, especially if combined with continued whale distribution and incomplete leverage unwinding.
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