According to a review conducted by the US think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), America has a far higher stake in Russia’s war on in Ukraine.
The ISW has warned that a victory by Vladimir Putin to take all of Ukraine is not impossible should the US Congress continue to cut military aid packages to Kyiv and if Europe were to follow.
The report highlights that after Putin’s war in Ukraine the Russian Army will have far better combat experience and a far larger army than pre-2022 levels.
Sanctions will eventually erode and the economy will strengthen once again as Moscow will circumvent whatever remains.
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The ISW report states, “A Russian conquest of all of Ukraine is by no means impossible if the United States cuts off all military assistance and Europe follows suit.
“Such an outcome would bring a battered but triumphant Russian army right up to NATO’s border from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean.
“The Ukrainian military with Western support has destroyed nearly 90% of the Russian army that invaded in February 2022 according to US intelligence sources, but the Russians have replaced those manpower losses and are ramping up their industrial base to make good their material losses at a rate much faster than their pre-war capacity had permitted.”
The analysis continues, “The Russian economy will gradually recover as sanctions inevitably erode and Moscow develops ways to circumvent or mitigate those that remain.
“Over time it will replace its equipment and rebuild its coherence, drawing on a wealth of hard-won experience fighting mechanized warfare. It will bring with it advanced air defence systems that only American stealth aircraft—badly needed to deter and confront China—can reliably penetrate.
“Russia can pose a major conventional military threat to NATO for the first time since the 1990s in a timeframe set to a considerable extent by how much the Kremlin invests in its military.
“Since Moscow has already committed to an ambitious post-war military expansion program the US cannot be confident that the timeframe will be very long,”
However, the analyst’s insist that the overall military potential of the US and NATO allies is far greater combined that Russia, the West could have the ability to defeat Putin’s army even if Belarus joined any future conflict.
The report adds, “But as Americans consider the costs of continuing to help Ukraine fight the Russians in the coming years, they deserve a careful consideration of the costs of allowing Russia to win.
“Those costs are much higher than most people imagine.”
The ISW report concludes, “’Freezing’ the conflict is worse than continuing to help Ukraine fight—that would simply give Russia time and space to prepare for a renewed war to conquer Ukraine and confront NATO.
“Helping Ukraine regain control of all or most of its territory would be much more advantageous, as it would drive Russian forces even further to the east.
“Best of all, supporting Ukraine to its victory and then helping it rebuild would put the largest and most combat-effective friendly military on the European continent at the forefront of the defence of NATO—whether Ukraine does or does not ultimately join the alliance.”
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