Russian forces have failed to achieve any significant operational breakthrough on the front line over the past year, while Ukrainian troops have recorded incremental battlefield gains during winter and spring operations into 2026, according to a new assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The think tank said Russian advances have largely stalled in key sectors, including near Kostiantynivka, where Moscow’s forces have been unable to breach Ukraine’s defensive lines since October 2025.
By contrast, Ukrainian forces are assessed to have regained territory in a series of counteroffensives, including parts of Kupiansk in autumn 2025 and more than 400 square kilometres in southern Ukraine during subsequent winter and spring operations. Additional gains were reported in western Zaporizhzhia in late April.
ISW said these developments suggest a widening gap between Russian operational ambitions and battlefield outcomes, with Ukrainian forces increasingly able to disrupt Russian momentum through a combination of defensive resilience and targeted counterstrikes.
The report also noted that Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, equipment and energy infrastructure has intensified significantly, contributing to what analysts describe as reduced Russian capacity to mount large-scale offensive operations.
At the same time, the battlefield environment remained fluid during Russia’s self-declared May 9–11 ceasefire, with continued fighting reported across several sectors despite Moscow’s announcement of a temporary halt.
The ceasefire, ISW said, lacked credible enforcement mechanisms or independent monitoring arrangements, relying instead on informal expectations that Ukraine would refrain from striking Moscow during Victory Day commemorations.
“The prevalence of mutual accusations and continued localised activity highlights that ceasefires without enforcement and monitoring mechanisms are unlikely to hold,” the report said.
Analysts suggested Russian forces may have used the pause to rotate units, reposition reserves and prepare for future operations.
ISW also highlighted broader Ukrainian operational activity, including sustained pressure on Russian logistics networks and battlefield communications, which it said has complicated Moscow’s ability to coordinate offensive manoeuvres.
Earlier reports indicated that Russian forces have faced additional challenges in occupied territories due to disruptions in communications systems, including restrictions affecting satellite-based battlefield networks.
Despite periodic Russian claims of progress, ISW concluded that Ukraine has maintained defensive cohesion while selectively regaining ground and degrading Russian operational capacity through sustained attritional pressure.
For now, the front line remains largely static in many sectors — but analysts say the balance of momentum has not decisively shifted in Russia’s favour, despite sustained pressure over the past year.
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