Home Business News Lowest Conservative vote share since election announced

Lowest Conservative vote share since election announced

by LLB political Reporter
12th Jun 24 7:40 am

The Conservative Party (25%) has fallen to their lowest vote share in a Savanta poll since the general election was announced, according to the latest voting intention poll from Savanta for The Telegraph.

The poll, conducted earlier this week (7-9 June), sees the Labour Party on 44% of the vote share, with the Conservatives on 25%, a 19-point lead for the Labour Party. The Conservatives were last on 25% of the vote in early May.

Savanta’s last six voting intentions have shown Labour leads of 18, 17, 17, 14, 20 and now 19 points.

Reform UK’s increase – following widespread criticism of Rishi Sunak leaving D-Day commemorations early – appears to have stalled, with a one-point decrease to 10% of the vote.

Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said, “In some senses, this poll is clearly bad news for Rishi Sunak, with the Conservatives on their lowest vote share since the start of the campaign.

“However, there is a glimmer of positive news here – our research suggests they’re stagnating rather than in freefall, and Reform UK don’t appear to have been boosted by the PM’s mistake.

After the last seven days for the Prime Minister, which have been nothing short of a campaigning disaster, in many ways this is as good as he could have hoped for.

Savanta’s research also suggests that voters say they have increasingly made up their minds and are unlikely to change ahead of polling day.

In more ominous news for Rishi Sunak, Reform UK voters (83%) are just as likely as Conservative (79%) and Labour (80%) voters to say they are unlikely to change their mind when it comes to voting intention.

More broadly, over three quarters (77%) of voters say they are unlikely to change their mind between now and when the election will likely be held.

The one in five (20%) voters who say they are likely to change their mind includes two in five (39%) 25-34 year olds, a third (33%) of 35-44 year olds and two in five (39%) of those who say they currently intend to vote Liberal Democrat

Hopkins added, “The hope going into this election for all parties was that were a large number of undecided voters they could convince. Increasingly, it looks like that isn’t the case, with over three quarters of voters saying they’re unlikely to change their mind.

“Of particular concern for Rishi Sunak, over eight in ten Reform UK voters say they’re unlikely to change their vote – suggesting his strategy of squeezing Farage’s party isn’t working – although normal caveats about voters being bad at predicting their own behaviour continues to apply.”

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