Britain’s busiest airport has warned that the fallout from the Iran-US conflict is set to hit travel demand, with passenger numbers expected to fall this year.
Heathrow Airport said the ongoing instability in the Middle East was putting “notable downward pressure” on traffic, with flights to the region already down by around 25 per cent.
The west London airport expects passenger numbers to drop by 1.1 per cent in 2026, forecasting between 80.1 million and 84.5 million travellers passing through its terminals.
Its base estimate is 83.6 million passengers — below the record 84.5 million who used Heathrow last year.
The airport blamed continued uncertainty around the conflict, warning that the impact could spread beyond Middle East routes and weigh on global travel demand.
Heathrow said: “Continued volatility in the Middle East could dampen broader traffic volumes, with impacts extending beyond the region to global travel demand over the remainder of the year.”
The warning comes despite an interim peace deal being signed between Iran and the United States last week.
The disruption is also expected to hit Heathrow’s finances, with underlying earnings forecast to fall by £147 million compared with last year.
The airport’s latest outlook is also £60 million lower than the prediction made in December.
Aviation experts say airlines and airports remain vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, with conflicts affecting flight routes, passenger confidence and fuel costs.
Heathrow’s warning marks another challenge for the travel industry after years of turbulence caused by the pandemic, rising costs and international instability.
While passenger numbers remain historically high, the airport’s latest forecast highlights how quickly global events can send shockwaves through Britain’s travel sector.
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