deVere warns Income tax rises now look inevitable

Income tax rises in the UK now appear almost certain in the Chancellor’s upcoming Budget, warns Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.

His comments come as Rachel Reeves, the UK Chancellor, prepares to deliver her first Budget on 26 November and after Monday afternoon’s BBC interview.

Reeves described the upcoming Budget as “difficult” and refused to rule out tax increases.

Nigel Green says: “It’s increasingly clear that the government is preparing the public for an income tax hike.

“The language has shifted from reassurance to justification. The talk of ‘necessary choices’ and ‘doing what’s right for the country’ is political code for higher personal taxation.”

He adds: “We believe that income tax is likely to rise because it’s the single biggest and most reliable source of government revenue.

“It raises far more money than capital gains or inheritance taxes, for example, making it the fastest way for the Treasury to close the fiscal gap.”

The deVere CEO continues: “This Budget is shaping up as one of the toughest in years. Reeves is trying to fill a deep fiscal gap while keeping credibility with the markets.

“The combination of sluggish growth, high debt servicing costs, and stubborn inflation means the Treasury’s options are narrowing fast. Raising income tax thresholds or rates now looks, we believe, inevitable.”

The deVere CEO points to the UK’s deteriorating fiscal arithmetic as the trigger.

“The government’s borrowing costs remain near multi-decade highs, and public debt has topped 97% of GDP.

“The interest burden on the debt pile is still crushing. Reeves knows she has to find revenue somewhere, and she’s running out of alternatives.”

He continues: “Capital gains tax and dividend tax increases have been widely discussed, and they may still come.

“But these alone won’t deliver the scale of revenue needed. Income tax remains the government’s most efficient lever, politically painful though it is.”

deVere Group has consistently warned for more than six months that tax rises are likely to be on their way in the Budget.

“You can’t promise more public investment, manage record borrowing, and avoid raising taxes indefinitely. The arithmetic doesn’t work.”

The chief executive says that politically, an income tax rise could be presented as ‘temporary’ or ‘targeted,’ though as history teaches, such measures rarely roll back.

“Expect it to be framed as a shared sacrifice to restore stability, with hints that once growth improves, thresholds will be reviewed. But once revenue streams are opened, they rarely close.”

Nigel Green warns that middle earners will feel the impact most. “Fiscal drag has already pulled millions into higher brackets as wages rise faster than thresholds. An explicit increase would deepen that squeeze.

“It risks undermining disposable incomes just as consumer confidence shows early signs of recovery.”

He also highlights the message this Budget will send to international markets. “Reeves is walking a fine line between reassuring investors that the UK is fiscally responsible and avoiding a public backlash.

“Income tax hikes will signal discipline to bond markets, but they risk dampening growth in the short term.”

Nigel Green concludes: “The government has spent weeks softening the ground for this move.

“The talk of ‘difficult decisions’ and ‘responsibility’ is about expectation management. We believe income tax is about to rise, not because the Chancellor wants it to, but because she has no other credible choice left.

“The markets will welcome fiscal honesty, but households will feel the strain. This Budget will test political nerve and economic realism in equal measure.”