According to the research data analyzed and published by ForexSchoolOnline.com, the UK economy stands to lose £480 billion if the work-from-home trend keeps up. During the second quarter of 2020, the UK recorded a GDP decline of -21.7% and was the second worst performer in Europe. Spain came in first with a drop of -22.1%.
44% of UK workers will continue to work from home
According to data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS, April 2020 recorded the largest single month drop on record, which was at -20.4%. This contraction was three times higher than the decline experienced during the entire 2008/2009 global economic downturn. During the period, the balance of payments deficit rose to £21.1 billion, 3.8% of the GDP.
CEBR predicts that 32% of workers or 10.7 million people could keep working from home. And this figure might rise to 44% in the long run. Capita, which operates the London congestion charge, is closing 30% of its 250 Britain offices. The Royal Bank of Scotland has 49,000 of its 65,000 staff members working remotely until 2021. To illustrate the effect of this, Pret a Manger, a sandwich chain has had to cut more than 2,900 jobs as city centers are deserted.
The global economy is also reeling under the weight of the pandemic. According to the UN Trade Agency, it could slow down to a 2% growth rate, losing $1 trillion in 2020. In the worst case scenario, it might even slow down to a growth rate of 0.5% and lose $2 trillion. On the other hand, the Australian National University predicts a loss of up to $21.8 trillion in 2020. And in the worst case scenario, this figure could go as high as $35.3 trillion by 2025.