Globally, the rate of new cases of coronavirus continues to slow, according to Deutsche Bank.
Although yesterday saw an uptick in new case growth to 6.3 per cent, it is still below the 8.5 per cent seen five days ago. The total number of cases is now 1,431,706. Global fatalities from the disease rose by 7,383 or 9.9 per cent. This is the most fatalities in a single day, and the daily rate is higher than the last two days, as we have now seen a trend developing in some countries where there is a higher change of rate on a Tuesday which is likely due to a catch up from incomplete reporting over the weekend.
The UK is a good example of the ‘Tuesday surge’. As we feared in yesterday’s report, there was a sharp increase in the number of reported deaths over the last 24 hours after numbers improved over the Sunday and Monday. The 786 new deaths yesterday was the highest of the outbreak. However the three-day average of growth in UK deaths of 12.6 per cent is still substantially below the previous three-day growth rate of 22.4 per cent. At the same time, case growth in the UK fell further to 7.0 per cent, with the fewest new cases since last Tuesday.
A similar story emerged in New York, where even as case growth rose slightly to 7.9 per cent, the rate of new deaths rose to 15.4 per cent, slightly higher than yesterday’s low of the pandemic. It does appear that the growth of the number of daily deaths is slowing, with the five-day average of 16.7 per cent lower than the previous five days of 25.3 per cent. The state now has more reported cases (142,384) than any other country in the world.
The US as a whole continues to see a sharp slowdown with a three-day average new case growth of 8.8 per cent versus 13.1 per cent over the previous three days. But similar to the UK, the US saw fatalities pick up on Tuesday with growth of 18.2 per cent.
Spain and Italy continue to improve. Italy’s new case growth of 2.3 per cent was the lowest over the course of the pandemic while Spain’s 3.9 per cent was very slightly above yesterday’s low. New fatalities are growing at 3.7 per cent and 5.3 per cent respectively.
Germany saw new case growth rise slightly to 4.2 per cent, but the rate of new deaths fell to 11.4 per cent after rising slightly on Monday. The slowing rates come as reports emerge that the government is putting an exit strategy in place – see our new section below for more details.
French new cases rose by 11.3 per cent or over 11,000 over the past 24 hours. It was the most reported in one day outside of the accounting change made last Friday to include nursing homes. Meanwhile new deaths rose by 15.4 per cent after seeming to slow over the past two days.
The bank has added added Mexico, Brazil, and Russia into our tables after including India in recent days in order to keep a close eye on any case increases in emerging markets. Russia, Mexico, and India all still have new case growth in double digits but overall numbers remain much lower than that seen in Europe and the US. Is this a lagged impact, a reporting issue, or is it simply reflecting a lesser impact in emerging markets. We will continue to monitor to find out the answers.