President Trump’s decision to impose a global 10% tariff in response to the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down his ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs will have a disproportionate impact on the UK, warns the international delivery expert Parcelhero. It adds that, if Trump still follows through with his threat to raise global tariffs to 15%, the UK will be the hardest hit country of all.
Parcelhero’s Head of Consumer Research, David Jinks M.I.L.T., says: ‘New Government data released only last week reveals that UK goods exports to the USA fell to £59.2bn in 2025. Compare that to £60.4bn in 2023. This £1.2bn slump in UK exports since Trump took office will be the tip of the iceberg if the USA goes ahead and imposes a 15% global tariff on the UK despite last year’s trade deal. Even the 10% global tariff introduced this week is bad for the UK, as it means Chinese exports to the US will plummet in price, eliminating the UK’s hard-fought advantage.
‘Last year, the UK exported £59.226bn-worth of goods to the USA but imported £60.630bn-worth of goods. In other words, the USA has a £1.4bn positive trading balance with the UK. Ironically, however, America’s new global 10% tariff means goods from all countries that were charged higher tariffs will now pay the same as UK imports to the US, while the 15% tariff, if it is introduced, will harm the UK far more than those countries that the USA has a trade deficit with.
‘For now, Trump seems to have imposed a global 10% tariff, according to US Customs & Border Protection. That levels the playing field but means that countries with a massive trade imbalance with the US, such as China, now enjoy exactly the same tariffs as the UK on many products. That means UK goods suddenly face much steeper competition.
‘However, the threat still lingers that President Trump could increase this global tariff to 15%, as he announced over the weekend. Let’s look at the real impact a new 15% tariff would have on the UK, were it to be imposed. The UK negotiated a 10% basic tariff rate with the US following the former IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) tariffs that President Trump introduced last year.
‘If the President were to impose a 15% tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, the UK would face a 2.1 percentage point increase in its average tariff rate, according to Global Trade Alert, the World’s Trade and Industrial Policy Watchdog.
‘It says: “The United Kingdom (+2.1 pp), Italy (+1.7 pp), and Singapore (+1.1 pp) see the largest increases, because the 15% S122 surcharge exceeds what they paid under the IEEPA regime.”
‘In complete contrast, Global Trade Alert points out that: “Brazil (-13.6 pp), China (-7.1 pp), and India (-5.6 pp) benefit most, since the flat S122 surcharge replaces country-specific IEEPA rates that were far higher.”
‘So it is clear that the UK which, as far as President Trump is concerned, has a favourable trading balance with the US, ironically comes out the worst from a 15% increase, were it to still go ahead.
‘To put that into perspective, the British Chambers of Commerce has calculated that the higher 15% tariff rate would increase tariff costs on UK goods exported to the US by between £2-3bn ($2.7-4bn).
‘What would be the result of that? US consumers will buy Chinese imports that will have plunged in their total cost, as opposed to UK-made goods, which will have gone up.
‘It is therefore imperative that, if Trump does eventually raise the global tariff to 15%, the President stands by the deal he made with the UK last year, and the UK stays at 10%.
‘It is also considered likely that the new levy won’t apply to specific sectors that the UK has negotiated separate rates for, such as steel, aluminium, pharmaceuticals, automobiles and aerospace.
‘Whatever the result, the ongoing impact of new tariffs and the repeal of America’s de minimis rules – which the US administration argues has not been impacted by the Supreme Court’s ruling – means UK exporters are looking at another period of continuing volatility.’
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