Recent analysis from McKinsey & Company indicates that commodity markets are increasingly characterised by shorter and more frequent volatility cycles.
This shift is diminishing the effectiveness of traditional long-cycle “super cycle” trading models.
The study highlights that flexibility, rapid capital allocation, and direct access to physical supply flows are becoming increasingly important for value creation across global markets.
Total trading revenues across various sectors—including power and gas, metals and mining, agriculture, oil products, and liquefied natural gas (LNG)—slightly declined from $72 billion in 2024 to $69 billion in 2025.
However, these revenues remain approximately double the levels seen before the pandemic, indicating a structurally higher baseline for trading activity.
As profit margins stabilise, market value is becoming increasingly concentrated among a smaller number of highly sophisticated operators.
The report also emphasises the rising role of artificial intelligence (AI) in trading operations. While analytics-driven AI systems are being developed to support margin expansion, more advanced “agentic AI” models are automating post-trade processing and streamlining digital workflows. Early implementations suggest that redesigning operations around agentic AI could boost efficiency in back-office and support functions by 50–60%, shorten deal execution cycles, and enable faster conversion of data into trading decisions.
The analysis identifies three key structural forces shaping the sector: the acceleration of volatility cycles in global commodity markets, the increasing influence of AI technologies on trading business models, and the rise in investment in trading infrastructure, especially through strategic partnerships.
These trends are expected to continue reshaping energy, metals, and agricultural commodity markets in the coming years.
Roland Rechtsteiner, Partner at McKinsey said: “Shorter volatility cycles are creating a permanent divergence in the industry.
“Organisations that expand asset optionality by building strategic partnerships and differentiating AI capabilities will secure advantages that could become difficult to replicate. Therefore, a clear view of strategy and execution is critical.”
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