Iran has been threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz which sees between 20% and 30% of the world’s oil and gas transit through.
A former British military intelligence officer Phillip Ingram warned on Sky News that should Iran close the Strait of Hormuz there will be an enormous global “economic shock.”
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is likely to respond to save face and Ingrim warned this could be “really, really worrying.”
He told Sky News, “If Iran does shut the Straits of Hormuz, between 20 and 30% of all the world’s oil and gas goes through that strait.
The economic shock that would cause across the world would make what happened when Russia invaded Ukraine just over three years ago seem like small change.
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Following the US President’s strike on three of Iran’s nuclear sites the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz.
IRGC Navy Commander Brigadier General Alireza Tangsiri reportedly said, “The Strait of Hormuz will be closed within a few hours,” which sees around one-fifth of the world’s oil transit through.
Last week Saleem Khan, chief data and analytics officer at Pole Star Global wrote for LondonLovesBusiness.com warning that escalating military exchanges has “spurred growing unease among shipping and energy markets” over the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz being closed.
Khan wrote if there is an “escalation by proxy or direct attacks: If Iranian proxies target suspect merchant traffic—especially vessels flagged as U.S. or Israeli—or if Iran deploys asymmetric warfare (e.g., mines or anti-ship missiles), maritime disruption could quickly follow.
“Blockade via military or semi-official force: A deliberate closing of the Strait would constitute a significant escalation—likely invoking regional and Western powers into a direct naval confrontation. Such a move would have major geo-political consequences and trigger a major escalation. Though highly unlikely, this move would certainly alienate the Iranian regime from major trade partners and allies that rely on oil and gas from the Persian Gulf.
“Collateral disruptions: Even absent a full blockade, growing jamming of AIS signals near Iranian ports (already reported over Bandar Abbas) raises navigation risks, and ongoing attacks on oil infrastructure could force ship detours or increased insurance surcharges.”
He warned the wider ripple effects will hit insurance and routing costs, he added, “Shipping firms are already facing rising war-risk premiums. Even a hint of Strait disruption could significantly inflate global freight rates.”
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