GlobalData has downwardly revised its global economic growth forecast for 2022 from 4.4% in February to 3.5% in April 2022. The leading data and analytics company notes that this decrease is due to deepening supply chain disruptions, vaccination inequality and higher inflationary pressures amid the Russia-Ukraine war.
Ramnivas Mundada, Director of Economic Research and Companies at GlobalData, comments: “Global geopolitical tension is increasing the risks involved with investment and trade, as well as causing fluctuations in consumer demand. Further, prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine will continue to impact global growth in terms of production, trade, and employment. Major economies will continue to adopt tighter monetary policies to tame inflationary pressures amid rising oil and natural gas prices.”
GlobalData has revised its forecast for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in most regions: 0.5 percentage points (pp) for Asia-Pacific, 6.5pp for East Europe, 0.7pp for Western Europe, and 0.5pp in North America by 0.5 pp.
However, GlobalData anticipates that the Asia-Pacific region will be the fastest growing region in 2022, with its real GDP growth rate forecast at 4.2%. This is followed by the Middle East and Africa (MENA) region (4.1%), North America (3.4%), Africa (3.4%), West Europe (3.3%), Latin America (1.9%) and East Europe (-2.9%).
Mundada continues: “India and China are forecast to grow by 7.7% and 4.5%, respectively, in 2022. Despite the risks and the expected slowdown in economic growth, India and China are expected to drive global growth. Other countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and the Philippines are projected to register above 6% growth in 2022.”