The dollar held steady on Thursday amid geopolitical uncertainty and a cautious sentiment.
Markets could remain sensitive to the developments in the Middle East. Tensions remain elevated in the region amid continued incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and a failed attempt for a second round of talks this week, undermining prospects for a near-term resolution.
While the indefinite ceasefire extension provided some relief and could help support sentiment, overall uncertainty could continue to drive demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.
At the same time, elevated oil prices could continue to fuel inflation concerns, which could continue to support Treasury yields across the curve. Recent US economic data also highlighted economic resilience, which could lower expectations of a softer monetary policy. In this regard, interest rates are expected to remain on hold for an extended period, which could strengthen yields and the dollar.
Attention now turns to initial jobless claims and PMI data. Continued signs of economic resilience would likely support yields and the dollar, while any evidence of slowing activity could introduce downside pressure.
From a technical standpoint, the dollar index has retreated roughly 2% from the upper bound of the range that has been in place since April 2025. Ongoing global developments and recent US data releases have failed to provide a sufficient catalyst for a decisive breakout, leaving major dollar pairs confined to a consolidation phase. From a portfolio perspective, we remain focused on identifying confirmed breakouts and will look to allocate toward relative outperformers as they emerge.
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