Bitcoin fell below the USD 93,000 mark this weekend, which is the lowest level in nearly six months.
This decline marks one of the strongest corrections since the beginning of the year. It also reflects a shift in overall market sentiment from the risk-on optimism at the beginning of Q4 to a more cautious and defensive risk-off tone.
From the peak near USD 125,000 in early October, Bitcoin has lost nearly 25% of its value, showing that the current selling pressure does not come only from retail investors but also from institutional flows, which are highly sensitive to macroeconomic signals.
The first factor putting significant pressure on Bitcoin is the shift in expectations regarding monetary policy.
Throughout most of October, the market was almost certain that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates in December. However, recent speeches from many Fed officials indicate a more cautious stance, suggesting that conditions are not yet suitable for easing, and that the Fed wants to wait for more data before making a decision.
This caused expectations of a rate cut to fall sharply and the U.S. dollar to remain stable.
Bitcoin is highly sensitive to liquidity expectations, so the digital currency immediately lost one of the most important catalysts that supported its strong rally earlier this year. When the easing narrative is temporarily interrupted, the market must adjust itself, and Bitcoin becomes one of the assets most clearly affected.
The second factor that triggered a surge in selling pressure is the loss of the psychological level of USD 100,000. This is an important anchor for market sentiment. When the USD 100,000 zone breaks, a series of stop-loss orders and leveraged positions are liquidated, creating a chain reaction of selling. Algorithmic trading models also simultaneously shift from a buying preference to neutral or selling. Therefore, after breaking such an important psychological threshold, volatility often increases significantly and can turn a normal correction into a deep decline.
The last factor, and perhaps the most important one at the moment for Bitcoin, is institutional capital flow. Over the past three weeks, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a total net outflow of around USD 3.1 billion, marking the strongest withdrawal streak since the outflows in late February this year.
Some individual sessions also recorded outflows of hundreds of millions of dollars, showing that many institutional investors are actively reducing risk and taking profit after a hot rally. This is a very notable signal because ETFs are the largest channel for capital into Bitcoin during this cycle. When ETFs continue to experience outflows, institutional demand weakens significantly, causing the market to lack support during periods of high volatility. A small portion of capital has even rotated into altcoin ETFs such as Solana and XRP, which shows internal divergence as BTC loses momentum.
From my personal perspective, Bitcoin is going through a mid-cycle de-risking phase rather than entering a full bear market.
In the short term, Bitcoin’s outlook is still heavily affected by macro risks and ETF flows. The Fed has no intention to ease, real interest rates remain high, and investor sentiment is still cautious, making it likely that BTC will trade within a range right below the USD 100,000 level. Rebounds during this period are mostly technical and aim to relieve oversold conditions rather than signalling the return of a sustainable uptrend.
However, in the medium and long term, I believe there is still a basis to expect a new high for Bitcoin. Institutional accumulation since the beginning of the year, the effect of ETFs, cyclical factors such as the halving, and the possibility that global liquidity may improve in 2026 remain important foundations for a long-term bullish trend in this digital asset. For now, the market is going through a phase of repricing expectations, absorbing selling pressure, and waiting for a new catalyst, which may come from U.S. economic data, a more dovish message from the Fed, or the return of ETF inflows.
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