UK shop price inflation edged lower in April, helped by widespread discounting across retailers, though warnings are growing that consumers have yet to feel the “full force” of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Data from the British Retail Consortium and NIQ shows overall shop prices rose by 1% compared with a year earlier, down from 1.2% in March and slightly below the recent three-month average of 1.1%.
The slowdown was driven largely by weaker non-food inflation, which slipped into negative territory at -0.1%, compared with a 0.1% rise the previous month, as retailers leaned heavily on promotions to attract cautious shoppers.
Food inflation also moderated, easing from 3.4% in March to 3.1% in April. However, the cost of fresh food remains significantly higher than last year, up 3.9%, keeping pressure on household budgets.
Retailers have been cutting prices to stimulate demand in a fragile consumer environment, but industry figures warn this may prove temporary if global energy markets remain volatile.
The easing comes against a backdrop of renewed concerns over supply shocks linked to instability in the Middle East, which analysts say could yet filter through into higher transport, energy and food costs later in the year.
For now, however, the data suggests inflationary pressure across the high street is cooling—offering some relief to shoppers even as uncertainty builds beneath the surface of the global economy.
Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NIQ, said: “Increased fuel prices are already leading to higher inflation, and we can expect a similar impact in the food and non-food supply chains in the months to come.
“However, retailers will look to hold back any price increases as long as possible as alongside fragile consumer confidence, accelerating inflation is likely to negatively affect consumer spending.”
BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said: “Bigger discounts in clothing, furniture and DIY goods helped pull down shop price inflation in April.
“With weakening consumer confidence, retailers competed harder on price to stimulate more spring spending.
“Food price inflation also slowed as retailers offered discounts on Easter items such as chocolate.
“While we’re yet to see the full force of the Middle East conflict feeding into consumer prices, it will not be long before it begins to.”
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