Oil prices were down today, after a rebound and consolidation. As geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe and trade risks declined, focus is returning to the market’s fundamentals.
President Trump stepped back from tariff threats linked to the Greenland dispute, reducing the immediate demand overhang.
The oversupply expectations for 2026 could continue to drive the market to the downside. While the IEA raised its 2026 demand-growth view, it still warned that supply is set to outpace demand.
The API data also pointed to rising US crude stocks weighing on sentiment.
At the same time, temporary supply disruptions in Kazakhstan could drive some volatility in the market, although their impact might not be long-lasting. OPEC+’s policy could also provide the market with some support as the organisation maintains its oil production increase freeze.
The market could react to the release of the EIA crude inventory data later today. The latter is expected to show a 1.1 million increase for crude, a 1.7 million increase for gasoline and a 0.2 decline for distillate. A strong divergence from estimates could fuel some temporary volatility.
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