The ongoing conflict between the US and Israel with Iran is likely to increase illegal migration to the UK, according to Graeme Biggar, the head of the National Crime Agency (NCA).
He stated that while he doesn’t anticipate “an absolutely massive increase from Iran,” the conflict could lead more individuals to attempt the dangerous Channel crossing in small boats.
During an event in Stratford to launch the National Strategic Assessment for 2026, Biggar noted that migration crises typically follow conflicts, as people flee violence and instability.
He remarked, “Migrant demand to reach the UK unlawfully continues to be high, and the conflict in Iran is likely to exacerbate this challenge.”
He pointed out that the majority of those arriving in the UK are still nationals from the Horn of Africa, who now represent a larger group attempting to cross the Channel than Albanians or Vietnamese migrants.
Addressing the issue of people-smuggling networks, Biggar emphasised that it remains the NCA’s top operational priority, accounting for around a quarter of the agency’s work. He acknowledged the difficulties of disrupting criminal activities abroad, especially since some aspects of the trade are not illegal in the migrants’ home countries.
Nevertheless, he highlighted several recent successes, such as the seizure of over 500 boats and engines in 2025 and the arrest and imprisonment of key smuggling operatives across Europe, including individuals from Iraq, Libya, Ethiopia, Turkey, Germany, and France. Notably, a major supplier of small-boat equipment used in about half of the Channel crossings in 2023 was sentenced to 11 years in prison in January.
The NCA is taking a comprehensive approach to target the smuggling trade at all levels, focusing on finances, equipment, and communications, while collaborating with UK police and immigration enforcement to disrupt domestic operations.
Last year, more than 45,000 people made the perilous crossing from France, reflecting a 13% increase compared to 2024. With the arrival of calmer seas and improving weather conditions, Biggar warned that these numbers are expected to rise further in the coming weeks.
“The threat remains high,” he stated, “but we are maintaining a relentless focus on protecting the UK and dismantling the criminal networks responsible for these crossings.”
Leave a Comment