Global markets appear complacent, and investors need to be more proactive in safeguarding and growing their wealth, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations amid the escalating conflict with Iran.
Nigel Green, the CEO of deVere Group, issues this warning as the intensifying conflict involving Iran, the U.S., and Israel—among other nations—has sharply pushed oil prices higher, triggered significant selling across Asian equities, and unsettled global markets in the past 24 hours.
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have led to retaliatory attacks across the Gulf, threatening shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz, which is responsible for transporting roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply.
Oil markets have reacted sharply, with Brent crude rising about 1.4% on Wednesday to approximately $82.50 a barrel, after surging in the previous session. Prices have increased more than 12% in just a few days as traders assess the risk of prolonged disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies.
Stock markets are beginning to respond, though Nigel Green says the reaction remains “restrained” given the scale of the geopolitical shock. Asian equities experienced some of the sharpest declines on Wednesday. For instance, South Korea’s KOSPI index plunged more than 10% in a single session, wiping out roughly $430 billion in market value and marking its steepest fall since the global financial crisis.
Wall Street has also felt the pressure. The S&P 500 fell around 0.9% in the latest trading session, briefly touching its lowest level in over three months before recovering some losses by the close.
Despite this volatility, Nigel Green warns that investors may be underestimating the potential economic consequences of the conflict involving Iran.
“Markets are reacting, but the broader response still seems complacent,” he says. “Investors appear to be assuming that the conflict will remain limited and short-lived. Geopolitical shocks related to global energy supply rarely unfold in such a neat manner.”
The consequences extend beyond energy markets. “Energy is at the core of the global economy,” notes the deVere CEO. “As oil prices surge because supply routes near Iran are threatened, the effects will permeate through transportation costs, manufacturing, agriculture, and consumer prices.” He warns that the inflation outlook could change rapidly if oil prices continue to rise.
“Energy prices are one of the quickest ways geopolitical tensions translate into economic pressure. When crude prices rise sharply, they increase costs across supply chains and complicate the outlook for inflation and interest rates,” he explains.
Financial markets had been prepared for easing inflation and gradually lower borrowing costs this year. However, the conflict involving Iran introduces a significant new risk to that outlook.
“Investors had been pricing in a relatively stable economic backdrop,” Nigel Green observes. “The conflict involving Iran introduces a powerful new variable that markets may not be fully reflecting yet.”
He believes that recent market behaviour reflects a pattern developed over the past decade. “Financial markets have grown accustomed to geopolitical shocks fading quickly,” he points out. “This experience has created a degree of complacency in portfolio positioning.”
He argues that the current crisis deserves greater attention from investors. “The Middle East remains central to the global energy system. Should tensions involving Iran escalate, the economic implications will ripple across energy markets, inflation, and financial assets worldwide.”
Investors should review their portfolio positioning now rather than waiting for volatility to intensify. “Periods of geopolitical stress create both risks and opportunities,” Nigel Green adds. “Energy producers and commodities often benefit when supply is threatened, while sectors exposed to rising costs can face significant pressure.”
Diversification remains essential. “Investors should ensure their portfolios are balanced across regions, sectors, asset classes, and currencies, so they are better prepared for rising volatility. Concentrated portfolios are particularly vulnerable when geopolitical tensions escalate.”
The deVere CEO concludes, “Complacency must be avoided by investors right now. The conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel is already impacting energy markets, inflation expectations, and global equities.
“Investors who act early to strengthen their portfolio position themselves far better to safeguard and grow their wealth as geopolitical risks move back to the centre of global markets.”
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