Ethereum continued to weaken for a second consecutive session, retreating toward the 1,620 USD area as selling pressure remained dominant.
This move reflects a clear sense of caution among institutional investors. Spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded four consecutive days of net outflows, totalling around 190.53 million USD, while ETH is also at risk of closing its seventh consecutive week of outflows.
This suggests that demand from institutional investors remains relatively weak, while defensive sentiment continues to dominate the broader crypto market.
In addition to the weak ETF flow picture, the current macroeconomic backdrop is also not particularly supportive of risk assets.
The U.S. dollar has risen to its highest level in around a year, with the DXY hovering around 101.2–101.3, reflecting market expectations that interest rates could remain elevated for longer. When the dollar strengthens and yields remain high, risk appetite typically narrows, making it harder for assets such as Ethereum to attract fresh inflows in the short term.
This is why ETH’s current rebound attempts still lack credibility unless they are supported by clearer improvements in capital flows and the macro environment.
Data from DefiLlama shows that stablecoin market capitalisation on the Ethereum network stands at around 156.7 billion USD, while 24-hour DEX trading volume is close to 960 million USD. However, trading volume over the past seven days has declined by more than 12%, suggesting that activity across the ecosystem is showing signs of slowing in the short term. This does not necessarily mean that Ethereum’s underlying fundamentals have weakened significantly, but it does indicate that growth momentum is not yet strong enough to support a sustainable price recovery.
Under the combined pressure of ETF outflows, a stronger U.S. dollar, and cautious market sentiment, Ethereum may continue to face major challenges if it wants to regain upward momentum. In the current environment, ETH rebounds should mainly be viewed as technical recoveries rather than clear reversal signals, as price action still lacks synchronised support from fundamental factors. As long as institutional flows have not stabilised and on-chain activity has not shown clearer improvement, the likelihood of ETH sustaining a durable recovery remains limited.
That said, from a longer-term perspective, Ethereum has not completely lost its supporting factors. According to CoinGecko, 32 institutions and public companies are currently holding a total of around 7.68 million ETH, equivalent to 6.37% of total supply, with a value of around 12.4 billion USD. This shows that ETH still holds a certain position in the corporate treasury asset narrative and continues to attract attention from long-term investors. However, in the short term, this factor remains more of a structural support than a direct catalyst strong enough to offset current selling pressure in the market.
In my view, Ethereum’s downtrend could continue in the near term, interspersed with technical rebounds, as institutional flows remain weak and pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar persists. The 1,500 USD area is an important psychological support level to watch, where ETH may attempt to re-accumulate if selling pressure begins to fade. If fundamental factors gradually improve, particularly if ETF flows stabilize and crypto market sentiment recovers, Ethereum could form a stronger base for a more sustainable recovery.
Conversely, if pressure continues to build from multiple fronts, including ETF outflows, interest rates, the U.S. dollar, and broader risk-averse sentiment, ETH may need to move into deeper price zones before finding a new equilibrium.
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