Bitcoin price advanced for a third consecutive day and is holding above $91K, yet the tone behind the move still feels cautious rather than committed.
Even as bitcoin pushes higher, traders do not seem sufficiently encouraged to deploy larger amounts of capital. They are waiting for US inflation data and the start of earnings season, which keeps risk-taking constrained and upside fragile.
That hesitation is visible in derivatives. Total crypto futures open interest has slipped to a 10-day low of $135.8Baccording to CoinGlass, a sign that traders are deliberately avoiding another cascading liquidation event.
Spot flows are not giving a strong green light either. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded about $113M in inflows yesterday, but that came after a week of $680M in net outflows and four sessions of persistent selling, according to SoSo Value.
While on-chain behaviour remains mixed. According to BGeometrics, the number of whale addresses holding between1K and 10K BTC is still hovering near its 2024 low in 1921 as of Sunday, which does not reflect any meaningful return of strategic accumulation.
With liquidity and accumulation still weak, bitcoin’s advance faces real obstacles. We need to see consistent buying across spot, on-chain, and derivatives markets before this can be called a durable bull move rather than a fragile rally.
That fragility matters because the macro calendar is heavy. Markets are awaiting the Consumer Price Index today and PPI tomorrow, while the unofficial start of earnings season begins with JPMorgan reporting today, followed by several major banks later in the week.
Geopolitics adds another layer of uncertainty. Tensions in the Middle East are escalating, with the possibility of a new conflict involving Iran appearing increasingly likely. Officials from the U.S., Israel, and Iran are exchanging alarming rhetoric, raising concerns about the implications of a war. Given Iran’s current economic struggles and military status following a recent 12-day conflict, there are fears that the nation may act with desperation in a fight for its survival. Observations from Venezuela’s situation could potentially inform the decisions of Iranian leaders.
Market analysts are particularly worried about the impact that renewed hostilities could have on the global supply chain and oil exports from the region. Historical precedents suggest that previous confrontations between Iran and Israel had notable effects on the cryptocurrency market, and there is a sense that this time may not be any different.
Leave a Comment