Bitcoin fell again to the $66,000 support level after the corrective rebound lost momentum, reflecting the fragility of the balance between risk appetite and available liquidity in global markets.
After surpassing $69,000 and approaching the psychological $70,000 barrier, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation appeared to be on track to resume its upward trajectory.
However, the swift pullback toward $67,000, including a volatile drop to $66,511, suggests in my view that the recent move was merely a technical bounce within a more complex macro environment, rather than the beginning of a sustainable bullish wave.
The latest decline erased roughly $40 billion in market capitalisation, falling from $1.38 trillion to $1.34 trillion in a single day, while the total cryptocurrency market contracted by 2.4% to $2.38 trillion.
In my opinion, the significance of these figures lies not only in their magnitude, but in their speed and their coincidence with the liquidation of leveraged positions exceeding $470 million within 24 hours.
These liquidations highlight a high dependence on short-term funding, making the market more vulnerable to sudden shocks. I believe that the greater the leverage ratio, the lower the market’s ability to absorb negative news without overreacting.
Notably, Bitcoin’s decline coincided with a drop in U.S. equity markets, as the Nasdaq lost more than 300 points in a single session, while both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 closed in the red.
Even the momentum linked to the artificial intelligence sector, which had fuelled previous rallies, began to fade despite strong earnings from some major companies. In my analysis, this correlation confirms that Bitcoin has not yet decoupled from high-risk asset dynamics, often moving as part of the broader “growth trade” basket. Consequently, any repricing of risk in equity markets is quickly reflected in the cryptocurrency market.
Geopolitical factors added further complexity. Intermittent talks between the United States and Iran fuelled concerns about potential military escalation.
Although such reports remain unconfirmed, markets typically price in probabilities before events materialise. From a macroeconomic perspective, any direct confrontation could disrupt energy markets and push oil prices higher, exerting upward pressure on inflation and limiting central banks’ room for manoeuvre. In such an environment, investors tend to reduce exposure to volatile assets, increase liquidity holdings, or shift toward traditional safe havens.
Some estimates suggest that gold could rise by around 15% within two weeks in the event of a direct conflict, targeting a range between $5,500 and $5,800 per ounce. Whether these projections materialise or not, the message is clear: in moments of existential risk, investors return to assets that have historically preserved value. In this context, I believe Bitcoin—despite the “digital gold” narrative—has not yet proven itself as a safe haven during sharp geopolitical shocks. Its recent behaviour indicates that it is still priced as a high-beta risk asset sensitive to global liquidity flows.
Warnings of a potential retest of the liquidity zone between $64,000 and $65,000 appear reasonable given current conditions. With tightening liquidity and a stronger U.S. dollar, dollar-denominated assets face additional pressure. In my view, a clear daily close below $66,000 could technically open the way toward that range, where defensive buy orders and unfilled liquidity are concentrated. However, I do not see this scenario as a structural collapse, but rather a deeper correction within a medium-term uptrend—provided macro conditions do not deteriorate sharply.
From a risk management perspective, I believe the current phase requires greater discipline from investors, particularly those using leverage. The market has clearly demonstrated how a 2% to 3% move can wipe out hundreds of millions of dollars through forced liquidations. In my opinion, investing in Bitcoin at these levels should be based on a longer-term horizon and a clear awareness of potential volatility, rather than short-term bets on psychological breakouts such as the $70,000 level.
In the near term, I expect Bitcoin to remain within a broad range between $64,000 and $70,000, with a slight bearish bias if geopolitical pressures persist and equity market momentum weakens. Over the medium term, stabilisation in macro conditions and a return of risk appetite could lead to a retest—and possibly a break—of recent highs, contingent upon a softer U.S. dollar and an easing of global risk aversion. In conclusion, what we are witnessing is not the end of a bullish cycle, but rather a test of its resilience in a turbulent global environment; the $66,000 level will be a decisive indicator of whether the market can regain confidence or slide into a deeper correction before any new upward leg begins.
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