Voters are leaning towards Labour and ‘they’ve made up their minds’ the Tories are ‘out’

Labour has recorded its largest lead over the Conservatives since January 2023, according to the latest voting intention poll from Savanta for The Sun.

The poll, conducted earlier this week (25-27 March), sees the Labour Party on 45% of the vote share, with the Conservatives on 24%, a 21-point lead. At 12%, Reform UK has their largest ever vote share in a Savanta poll for the second time this month.

But in signs that there are increasingly fewer voters the Conservatives may be able to convince ahead of the next general election to avoid electoral wipeout, eight in ten (82%) voters say that they’re unlikely to change their mind (with 56% saying ‘very unlikely’).

Just 14% say that it’s likely they’ll change their mind between now and polling day. Crucially among 2019 Conservative voters who have already switched away from the party or are currently undecided, just 8% say they can see themselves voting Conservative at the next election.

In a series of head-to-heads, Starmer and the Labour Party beat Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party on every metric among the public, including:

• The party which has the best plan for cutting taxes for working people (Labour 47%, the Conservatives 27%) – a 20-point lead for Labour
• The party which has the best plan to improve the NHS (Labour 53%, the Conservatives 22%) – a 31-point lead for Labour
• The party which is united (Labour 45%, the Conservatives 18%) – a 27-point lead for Labour
• The party which is electable (Labour 56%, the Conservatives 30%) – a 26-point lead for Labour

Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said, “A Labour lead of 21 points – Savanta’s sixth in a row above 17 points – used to be notable in of itself.

“Now what is most striking about our research is how rock-solid Labour’s lead currently looks. It’s not just that voters are leaning towards Keir Starmer’s party – our findings suggest they’ve made up their minds – they want the Conservatives out.

“The public are notoriously bad judges of their own behaviour, but irrespectively of that, it is apparent there just aren’t that many wavering voters for the Conservatives to target.

“And because they are abandoning the party for so many different reasons, there doesn’t appear to be one single political strategy Sunak could pursue to stop the bleeding.”

Savanta polled Conservative 2019 voters who have since switched to another party to better understand their motivations. Six in ten (60%) of those who have since moved support to Labour say that it is a vote for Labour, with four in ten (37%) saying it’s a vote against the Conservatives.

However, the vast majority (86%) of Conservative to Reform UK switchers say it’s a vote for Reform UK. Just 14% say it’s a vote against the Conservatives.