Ipsos’ Scottish Political Monitor, run in partnership with STV News, finds that the SNP remains the dominant party in Scotland, leading Labour by 10 points on Westminster General Election voting intention and by 12 points on Scottish Parliament constituency voting intention.
A majority of the Scottish public (61%) think Michael Matheson should resign over the issue of his data roaming bill.
Rishi Sunak’s ratings among the Scottish public have worsened, with 72% dissatisfied with his performance as Prime Minister now, compared with 53% a year ago.
Support for Scottish independence is at a similar level to our last poll in May, with Yes slightly ahead. Among those with a voting intention and very likely to vote, 54% say they would vote Yes in an immediate referendum while 46% say they would vote No.
General Election voting intention
The SNP remain out in front on General Election voting intention, with a lead of 10 points over Labour. Voter preferences are similar to May, with the SNP on 40% (-1 since May), Labour on 30% (+1), the Conservatives on 15% (-2), the Liberal Democrats on 6% (unchanged), the Green Party on 3% (unchanged) and Other on 5% (+2).
At 40%, the proportion of likely voters who say they would vote for the SNP in an immediate General Election is 5 points lower than the 45% who voted for them at the last General Election in December 2019.
Scottish Parliament voting intention
The SNP have a 12-point lead over Labour on Scottish Parliament constituency voting intention. Again, voter preferences for Holyrood are broadly similar to May, with the SNP on 39% (-3), Labour on 27% (-1), the Conservatives on 15% (-2), the Liberal Democrats on 8% (+1), the Green Party on 4% (unchanged) and Other on 6% (+4).
At 39%, the proportion of likely voters who say they would cast their constituency vote for the SNP in an immediate Holyrood Election is 8 points lower than the 47.7% who voted for them at the last Holyrood Election in May 2021.
The SNP also lead Labour by 7 points on regional list voting intention. Headline voting intention finds the SNP on 33% (-2), Labour on 26% (-1), the Conservatives on 15% (-2), the Green Party on 10% (-2), the Liberal Democrats on 8% (+3) and Other on 7% (+2).
Should Michael Matheson resign over the issue of his iPad data roaming bill?
Scots think that Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Care Michael Matheson should resign over the issue of his parliamentary iPad data roaming bill by almost a 2:1 margin. 61% say that Mr Matheson should resign, while 31% say he should continue in post. More SNP voters from 2021 think that he should resign (52%) than that he should continue (44%).
Leader satisfaction
Anas Sarwar is the only political leader asked about in our poll to receive a positive net satisfaction rating, as was also the case in May. 40% are satisfied with his performance as Scottish Labour leader, while 37% are dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction rating of +3.Humza Yousaf’s ratings are more negative. 35% are satisfied with his performance as First Minister, while 48% are dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction rating of -13.
Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross receives a negative net satisfaction rating of -27.
Dissatisfaction with Rishi Sunak has increased markedly since our last poll. He receives a negative net satisfaction rating from Scots, of -53 (compared with -29 in May 2023 and -21 in December 2022).19% are satisfied and 72% dissatisfied with his performance as Prime Minister.
New Foreign Secretary David Cameron also receives a negative net satisfaction rating. However, at -27, it is less negative than both Rishi Sunak’s current rating (-53) and Mr Cameron’s own rating in the latter days of his time as Prime Minister (-38 in April 2016).
Dissatisfaction with Keir Starmer has also increased since May. 32% are satisfied with his performance as leader of the UK Labour Party, while 52% are dissatisfied, giving him a net satisfaction rating of -20 compared with -12 in May.
Are Labour ready to govern?
The Scottish public are slightly more likely to agree that Labour is ready to form the next UK Government (41%) than to disagree with this (36%). In contrast, more disagree than agree that Scottish Labour is ready to form the next Scottish Government (45% vs 32%). There are signs of improvement for Labour in Scotland, however, with a net ‘ready to govern’ rating (the % that agree they are ready to govern in Scotland, minus the % that disagree) of -13 now, compared with -22 a year ago.
Independence
The poll shows a small lead for Yes. Among those likely to vote either Yes or No in an immediate referendum, 54% say they would vote Yes and 46% No.
Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos in Scotland, said, “The Labour Party continues to face a political challenge in Scotland.
“Although the party has made strides in Scotland under Sarwar and Starmer, including the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election win in October, this latest poll finds that they remain 10 points behind the SNP when it comes to General Election voting intention.
“Although Humza Yousaf’s party have been having a difficult time of late, with controversy over Michael Matheson’s parliamentary iPad data roaming bill of almost £11,000, they remain out in front when it comes to voter preferences for both Westminster and Holyrood elections.”
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