Home Business News Savanta: Latest voting intention gives Labour a 14pt lead

Savanta: Latest voting intention gives Labour a 14pt lead

by LLB political Reporter
23rd Feb 23 1:32 pm

Labour have a 14pt voting intention lead over the Conservative Party, according to the latest polling from Savanta.

The poll, conducted over the weekend (17-19 February), shows Labour on 45% of the vote and the Conservatives on 31%, the former seeing no change from the previous week, and the latter up three points.

The poll also assesses which of the two party leaders would make the best Prime Minister. Rishi Sunak leads Keir Starmer for the second successive poll, this time by only two points (36% Sunak vs 34% Starmer). Starmer has tied Sunak (37% apiece, December) but hasn’t led Savanta’s best PM rating since Liz Truss was Prime Minister.

Both politician’s net favourability, however, has dropped since January, with Starmer down three points to -7, and Sunak down four points to -11%.

Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said, “There currently appears to be some divergence among pollsters regarding how large Labour’s lead is, with Savanta’s 14pt lead an industry low.

“This, once again, has a lot to do with how many Conservative 2019 voters are currently telling pollsters they’re undecided. Across all pollsters, we’re seeing around one in seven 2019 Conservatives actively switching to Labour, but whereas Savanta are seeing two thirds saying they’d still vote Conservative tomorrow, and a small proportion saying they’re undecided, others are seeing less than half of the Conservative 2019 vote staying put, with significantly more undecided.”

Of course, when undecided voters are then removed from a headline voting intention, it creates this disparity among pollsters regarding the Labour lead.

“Polls are, of course, a nowcast rather than a forecast, and the key to the next election will be how loyal those 2019 voters are to Rishi Sunak’s party. If the large proportion of supposedly undecided voters some pollsters are seeing do desert the Conservatives, Labour’s majority could be massive; if they vote Conservative again, and Labour are relying on keeping hold of existing switchers, which could make their majority far more modest.”

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