Despite Labour becoming the largest party in local Government for the first time since 2002 following last week’s local elections, Opinium’s latest poll reveals that Labour’s lead has dipped to 14 points.
Labour has 43% of the vote share (-1), whilst the Conservatives have made gains of +2, with 29% of the vote share. The Liberal Democrats have 11% (+1) and the SNP remain on 3% (n/c). Reform UK have dipped to 6% (-2) while the Green Party have dropped to 5% (-2).
Sunak and Starmer take a hit in approval ratings – with Sunak more unpopular week-on-week
Both Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak saw their approval ratings dip this week, with Sunak currently having a net approval of -19% (-1), and Starmer on -5%, which is down -2% in the last fortnight. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is increasingly unpopular week-on-week, continuing the decline from -18 net approval a fortnight ago, -12 during 12-14th April, and -6 net approval on the 4-6th April.
“Coalition of Chaos” seen as a cross-party issue
When thinking of the next general election, UK adults think a Labour majority would be the most stable result, with 45% believing it would be stable, compared to 36% who think it would be unstable. This is a net stability of +10%, the only potential election results with a net positive score of those tested.
Considering a Conservative majority, the UK is not as positive, with most (46%) thinking it would lead to an unstable parliament.
When asked about potential coalition governments, UK voters thought most coalition governments would spell chaos. A Lib Dem – Labour coalition had a net stability score of -11% overall, with 44% thinking it would make for an unstable parliament.
In addition, voters think a Labour-SNP coalition would produce unstable results, with 19% branding it as stable, compared to a majority (54%) who believe it would be unstable – leaving a net stability of -35%.
Conservative coalitions fared even worse, as a Conservative-DUP government was seen as the most unstable result of the next election overall. Only 17% think this would be stable, compared to 57% who think it would be unstable. This leaves a net of -40%, the lowest between all the potential outcomes.
Public approve of the Public Order Act
Almost half (48%) approve of the Public Order Act, the law that allows police new powers to detain protestors, with only 28% opposing the bill. When it comes to the law being enacted during the coronation last Saturday, 45% felt that it was fair to arrest protestors compared to 30% who thought it was unfair.
Adam Drummond, Head of Political and Social Research at Opinium said, “Labour maintains a strong 14-point lead over the Conservatives, but the Tories have gained 3 points compared to the previous fortnight. For Conservatives, they will find this a much-needed boost after a disappointing set of local election results.
“However, there has been a lack of positive movement in Sunak’s approval ratings, with the Prime Minister’s personal approval dipping. Alongside this, Keir Starmer is still leading on the ‘Best PM’ question.
“For now, the results from the local elections have borne out what the polling suggests: that any reports of a Tory revival have been exaggerated. Looking ahead to the 2024 General Election, the Conservatives still need to win back a lot more voters to have a chance of retaining power.”