Home Business News Defections have had a larger negative impact on the Conservatives

Defections have had a larger negative impact on the Conservatives

by LLB political Reporter
20th May 24 10:38 am

Opinium’s latest polling reveals that Labour’s lead has now grown to 18 points. Labour has 43% (+3), the Conservatives are on 25% (+1) and the Liberal Democrats have 9% (-2).

Reform is on 10% (-2), while the Green Party is on 7% (no change) and the SNP has 3% (no change).

All three leaders have seen their approval ratings go up in the last fortnight, however, when asked who would make the best prime minister, Kier Starmer comes out top with a 14 point lead.

In addition to Labour leading on voting intention and Starmer leading on who would make the best prime minster, Labour has a lead across the board on economic indicators.

The largest lead is on improving public services (+28%) and improving voters’ financial situation (+15%). The indicators where the Conservatives under Rishi Sunak comes closest is on bringing down the national debt and deficit, where Labour lead by only 5%. However, this issue is considered the least important part of running the economy according to the public.


Following the news that both Dan Poulter and Natalie Elphicke have defected from the Conservative Party to the Labour Party, the public lean more towards believing that letting Dan Poulter into the Labour Party was the right than wrong decision (28% right vs 21% wrong), but think it was the wrong decision to let in Natalie Elphicke (16% right vs 33% wrong).

UK voters are unsure if Dan Poulter is genuinely supportive of Labour’s current policy platform (29% supportive vs 35% not supportive) but think Natalie Elphicke is not (17% genuinely supportive vs 49% not supportive).

The defections have a bigger negative impact on the Conservatives than a positive impact on Labour, with over a third (34%) of voters saying the defections have made them feel more negative towards the Conservative Party and only 27% say it made them feel more positive towards Labour.

Over a third (34%) think no one came out well from the defections, although 24% think the Labour Party, as a whole, came out best from the defections versus the MP themselves (11%) and the Conservative Party, as a whole (8%).

James Crouch, head of public affairs and policy at Opinium said, “Our latest poll shows Labour’s vote share bolstered by recent local election successes and notable defections. But perhaps more important than these political developments are how people actually feel in their pockets.

“Despite some positive economic news, most people feel much worse off than in 2019 and the public remain deeply pessimistic about the future. This widespread discontent is driving voters to place their trust in Labour on the economy, cementing their significant lead over the Conservatives.”

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