Odds slashed on spring election after Hunt announces January National Insurance cut in Autumn Statement

Odds on a general election to happen between April and June have been slashed to 12/5 from 16/5 after Wednesday’s Autumn Statement.

Rishi Sunak’s reported plan to bring a general election forward could backfire, with the prime minister odds-on at 8/11 to be replaced as Tory leader next year.

Kemi Badenoch is the 7/2 favourite to replace Sunak, with James Cleverly 11/2 and Penny Mordaunt 6/1, whilst Labour are 4/11 to win a majority at the next general election, with the Tories big 12/1 outsiders.

Betfair Exchange: When will the next general election take place?

January-March 2024: 26/1

April-June 2024: 12/5 (was 16/5 before Autumn budget)

July-September: 7/1

October-December: 4/5

2025 or later: 11/1

Betfair Exchange: Year Rishi Sunak will be replaced as Conservative leader

2023: 60/1

2024: 8/11 (was 5/6 before the Autumn budget)

2025 or later: 5/4

Betfair Exchange: Next Conservative leader

Kemi Badenoch: 7/2

James Cleverly: 11/2

Penny Mordaunt: 6/1

Suella Braverman: 8/1

David Cameron: 27/1

Nigel Farage: 35/1

Betfair Exchange: Next general election – overall majority

Labour majority: 4/11

No overall majority: 4/1

Conservative majority: 12/1

Betfair Exchange spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said, “While most people are delving into the figures of the Autumn Statement, there was a potential hidden meaning in Jeremy Hunt’s big National Insurance announcement which has got tongues wagging in Westminster.

“By bringing the date of that forward from April to January, the Conservatives have given themselves a window for people to see the benefit in their payslips at just the right time to allow themselves to call a spring general election.

“There have been whispers in the corridors of power Rishi Sunak might be considering going to the polls early, and while an Autumn election is still the favourite at 4/5, odds on it happening between April and June have been slashed to 12/5 from 16/5.

“And even if it is a Spring election, the odds are not looking good for Sunak and the Tories, with Labour the 4/11 overwhelming favourites to win a majority. In fact, Sunak is odds-on at 8/11 to leave his role as Tory leader next year, while Kemi Badenoch is the 7/2 frontrunner to replace him, with James Cleverly 11/2 and Penny Mordaunt 6/1.”