There has been a 13-point increase (49%) in Conservative voters admitting a Labour majority is the most likely outcome at the next general election, as Labour’s latest lead points to a three-figure majority, according to the latest voting intention poll from Savanta for The Telegraph.
The poll, conducted earlier this week and after voting had closed on local elections (3-5 May) sees the Labour Party on 43% of the vote share, with the Conservatives on 27%, a 16-point lead for Labour. The Liberal Democrats vote share is 11%, while Reform UK are on 9%.
If Savanta’s results were replicated at a general election, Labour would deliver a majority of 212, according to seat-modelling site Electoral Calculus – in contrast to Rishi Sunak’s recent suggestion that the UK is on course for a hung parliament.
Half (49%) of Conservative voters admit a Labour majority is the most likely outcome at the next general election. This was the the most chosen option and is a significant 13-point increase from the end of March, when just 36% of Conservative voters believed a Labour majority would be the most likely result.
Half of UK adults (53%) say that the most likely outcome of the next General Election is a Labour majority, with just one in six (16%) saying they believe the most likely outcome is a hung parliament.
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said, “Our first voting intention poll since the local elections simply restate those results – the Conservatives look on course for a pasting at a general election and Labour look set for a historic win.
“If our results were replicated at a general election, Labour would be on course for a majority of 212, according to seat-modelling site Electoral Calculus – very much not hung parliament territory, no matter how much Rishi Sunak wills it.
“The public – including Conservative voters – don’t appear to be buying what the Prime Minister is selling when it comes to the likelihood of a hung parliament. In fact, we’ve seen a significant increase in recent weeks of Tory voters believing that a Labour majority is the most likely outcome of the next general election. Based on these figures, their fears could be confirmed.”
The Prime Minister may be saved by a lack of clarity among who could replace him; ‘Don’t Know’ is the most chosen option among Conservative voters (25%) and public (43%) when asked who would be best to lead the Conservatives if not Sunak.
Among the wider public, the most chosen options after ‘Don’t Know’ were Foreign Secretary and former Prime Minister David Cameron (15%), and Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt (15%). For 2019 Conservative voters, Mordaunt came second (21%), Cameron third (18%) and former Home Secretary Suella Braverman (12%) next.
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said, “What looks to be saving Sunak is that no one can decide who they’d want to replace him. The most chosen option by some distance among the public and Conservative voters is ‘Don’t Know’.
The only person in the Conservative Party who is likely to enjoy our findings is Penny Mordaunt, who is the most popular choice after don’t know among the public and Conservative voters.”
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