Fireworks or damp squib? Investors consider their July 4 moves

With coronavirus numbers continuing to rise and much of the country struggling to emerge from lockdown, Independence Day celebrations are likely to be muted in the US this year.

And as we approach July 4, investor attention turns to the second half of the year with US markets grappling both with the recession brought on by the Covid-19 outbreak and with the presidential election cycle.

Unfortunately for Trump, no incumbent President since Calvin Coolidge in 1924 has won re-election when there was a recession in the 24 months leading up to polling day.

US markets have whipsawed since the coronavirus outbreak, recording the fastest bear market in history, taking just 16 days to fall by 20%.

Since then, however, asset prices have rebounded sharply thanks to significant intervention from central banks and policymakers with the S&P 500 nearly back to pre-crisis highs. The rally has been largely driven by a narrow group of mega-cap tech companies which increasingly account for a large percentage of the market index.