The dollar index was relatively steady on Monday as investors positioned for a dense calendar of economic releases and policy signals that could reset expectations ahead of December’s Federal Reserve meeting.
With a backlog of indicators set to be published following the end of the government shutdown, markets could experience heightened volatility, including the dollar and treasuries.
Attention this week could center on Thursday’s delayed September nonfarm payrolls report, expected to provide a clearer view of the labour market after weeks of incomplete information.
Additional private indicators could also help shape the economic outlook. Soft data could reinforce the case for further easing, while stronger readings may bolster the Fed’s cautious stance and bolster the greenback and yields.
Investors could also dissect remarks from several Fed officials and the release of the FOMC minutes for clues on whether policymakers are leaning toward another rate cut.
Markets currently price a 43% probability of a December interest rate cut, down from around 62% last week. The 10-year yield remained volatile but stayed close to the levels seen during the last few sessions.
On the policy front, the dollar could also find support after President Donald Trump signed an executive order exempting several food imports from broad tariffs.
Leave a Comment