Tories hit best chance yet for a majority with one week to go

On Thursday morning the chance of a Conservative majority has hit its highest point yet at by 72%, according to Smarkets.

President Donald Trump’s UK visit in the week before the general election could have damaged the Tories, but, the US president and the British prime minister, Boris Johnson largely avoided mentioning each other.

The odds on the overall majority have been stable around the 70% mark in recent days, with the Tories reaching a new high of 72% this morning. According to Smarkets a hung parliament is down by 27% and Labour are at just 2% for a majority.

Smarkets latest election map has Boris Johnson’s party currently projected to win 347 seats, which would mean a 44-seat majority.

Sarbjit Bakhshi, Smarkets head of political markets said, “Smarkets users were hunched over their keyboards yesterday ready to take advantage of the potentially big market swings following a verbal misstep by President Donald Trump or an endorsement by him of Boris Johnson. However, this was not to be, with the former turning down a press conference after the NATO summit and leaving the country.

“The President departed without many warm words for his ally Johnson, who in turn studiously avoided mentioning Trump by name in his own press conference.

“In our current strange political climate, not mentioning one’s allies at such a crucial point in the run-up to the election is the best result that could be expected for the Conservatives, who are now rated 72% likely to land a majority at the General Election next week.”

Also on Thursday the pound hit its highest level in two and half years against the euro as currency traders are betting on a Conservative victory in next week’s election.

Sterling soared to 1.1812 against the euro after reaching 1.1826 on Wednesday, against the dollar the currency was up by 0.75% to 1.3091.