Manchester City vs Arsenal preview: Battle of the red card specialists

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• City are Premier League’s “10-man specialists” with 70 per cent -win rate
• Arsenal have played more minutes with 10 men than any other side

Arsenal may have had the upper-hand in fixtures against Manchester City in recent years, but with Pep Guardiola’s side storming ahead in the title race, it could be a tight affair on Sunday.

The game could be decided by a mistake, a moment of brilliance or an unfortunate dismissal, but research from Bet-BonusCode.co.uk suggests that even a red card might not be enough to separate the sides as City and Arsenal are the best performing teams when down to 10 men.

City’s impressive 70 per cent -win rate ranks them as the most successful Premier League club in the last five years after a sending off* and Arsenal’s 44 per cent win-rate ranks them second on the list.

There has been just the one sending off in the fixture over the last five years. Vincent Kompany’s 75^th dismissal during the 2012/13 season didn’t stop the Sky Blues holding onto their 2-0 lead, claiming all three points – an example of the City’s ability to see out games while a man light.

The findings also revealed that the Manchester club have the best scoring record when a man down. In nine of the 10 games which saw a City player receive a red card, they still scored another goal after their numbers were reduced.

In addition, City have had the earliest dismissal while still going on to win a game. Kompany’s sending off after just 10 minutes against Hull City during the 2013/14 season still saw them go on to win the match 2-0.

The top five clubs with 10 men over the last five years of Premier League fixtures are**:

1. Man City – 70 per cent -win rate across 10 games
2. Arsenal – 44 per cent, 18 games
3. Everton – 38 per cent, 13 games
4. Liverpool – 33 per cent, 9 games
5. QPR – 33 per cent, 6 games

Arsenal have had to play the greatest amount of time without a full 11, facing 615 minutes of Premier League football while a man down. This equates to almost seven whole matches over the five-year period, or 1.4 games per season.

Julian Beck of Bet-BonusCode.co.uk commented, “Being a man light is a real challenge for players, especially when the dismissal is early on in a game. However, Manchester City in particular are showing this to be no more than a ‘10-man myth’ with a very impressive goal scoring record and ability to see out games, even after losing a player.

“Overall, we have found that teams with 10 men go on to lose 59% of matches, winning just one in five, so perhaps City and Arsenal are actually the exception rather than the rule.”