Headline consumer confidence falls by its greatest monthly amount and to its lowest level since July 2016
UK consumer confidence has fallen to the same level it was at immediately after the EU referendum, data from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research shows.
The latest analysis finds that the YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Index stands at 106.6 this month – down from 109.3 in October. While any score over 100 means more consumers are confident than unconfident, this month’s Index is at a level not seen since July 2016, the month following the vote to leave the European Union.
YouGov collects consumer confidence data every day, conducting over 6,000 interviews a month. Respondents are asked about household finances, property prices, job security and business activity, both over the past 30 days and looking ahead to the next 12 months.
All eight underlying measures – four backward-looking and four forward-looking – have declined in November. The score for household finances over the past 30 days has fallen to its lowest level since January 2014, while the metric looking at consumer expectations for household finances over the next 12 months has fallen by its biggest monthly amount since October 2016.
The property price measures have also fallen. The score for house values over the past 30 days has fallen to its lowest level since July 2013, while the metric looking at home owners’ expectations for house values over the next 12 months has fallen to its lowest point since July 2016.
Stephen Harmston, Head of YouGov Reports: “The big decline in consumer confidence means we are back where we were immediately after the Brexit vote. There have been falls across the board – from how secure people feel in their jobs to what they think house prices will do – and the increased cost of living has put a big squeeze on people’s household finances. Overall, these are a gloomy set of consumer confidence figures.”
Christian Jaccarini, Economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research: “November saw consumer confidence damaged by a range of factors. The first interest rate hike in over a decade triggered fears that higher borrowing costs will compound the inflation-induced squeeze on household incomes. Simultaneously, higher rates and a housing market in slowdown are warning signals for many homeowners, who fear house price growth may be further dampened. With these economic headwinds set to persist, and the OBR forecasting a weaker growth, households are understandably worried.”