There has been much talk over the past two weeks that Vladimir Putin could use the 9 May Victory parade to announce mass mobilisation of his reserves being sent to Ukraine.
Independent researcher and Russia expert Kamil Galeev warned that should Putin do this then this will be a “grave mistake” and there will be far reaching consequences for him, which could end up with him being ousted in coup.
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The Russian expert explained that should Putin mobilise his reserves then he will see “tons of armed people with an immediate self-interest in overthrowing the regime.”
Galeev told Sky News, “Judging from the Putin’s nature and habits, I would estimate a probability of him declaring a mass mobilisation on May 9 at 20%.
“He can raise the stakes largely for the PR effect and for boosting his legitimacy. It, however, will probably be a grave mistake.
“Putin absolutely can declare the mass mobilisation. But it will be conducted in a situation of almost no infrastructure and almost no organisational capacities for such a mobilisation and within a military doctrine that effectively excludes a possibility of such a mobilisation.
“In case of total mobilisation, we’ll have barracks and training facilities overcrowded by the enormous number of poorly motivated recruits under a weak leadership. And these recruits know they’ll be sent to Ukraine where they are likely to be KIA (Killed in Action).
“That’s a revolutionary situation.
“Right now I estimate the probability of a *successful* mass revolt in Russia as close to zero. In case of the mass mobilisation however, it’s gonna skyrocket.
“You’ll have tons of armed people with an immediate self-interest in overthrowing the regime.”