Public are split over Elphicke defection as the Conservatives continue to languish in the polls

Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has increased to 18-points, after a bruising week for Rishi Sunak which included the defection of Natalie Elphicke MP, according to the latest voting intention poll from Savanta for The Telegraph.

The poll, conducted earlier this week (10-12 May), sees the Labour Party on 43% of the vote share, with the Conservatives on 25%, a two-point increase in Labour’s lead since our poll last week. The Liberal Democrats are on 12% of the vote, their highest share in a Savanta poll in 2024.

Savanta’s last six voting intention polls have shown Labour leads of 15, 18, 16, 18, 16 and now 18 points.

Savanta’s findings come after Dover MP Natalie Elphicke’s defection, with the public fairly split over whether Keir Starmer was right (33%) or wrong (27%) to let Dover MP Natalie Elphicke join the Labour Party. Significantly, two in five (40%) say they don’t have a view, the largest proportion of any answer.

However, Starmer’s decision is backed by nearly half (46%) of 2019 Labour voters, while only a quarter (26%) say he was wrong to do so.

Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said, “It’s been another tough week for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives, and our latest voting intention poll reflects that. Even the good news of the UK coming out of recession was quickly overshadowed by Dover’s formerly Conservative MP Natalie Elphicke joining the Labour Party.

“While Elphicke’s defection has clearly harmed the Conservatives, our research suggests the public aren’t entirely convinced her move has been wholly positive for Labour either. Defections understandably make big noise in Westminster, but the most commonly expressed view by the public on Elphicke’s move was don’t know – likely reflecting a collective shrug of the shoulders or lack of understanding at the news.”

Two thirds of the public (64%) say that a by-election should be held if an MP defects from the political party that they were in when originally elected to a different political party, with just 14% saying there should not be a by-election.