People who voted Conservative in 2019 are warming to Liz Truss as her scores on all of Opinium’s leadership attributes jump compared to our last poll.
Last time Sunak led on “looks like a prime minister in waiting” among 2019 Tories while trailing far behind on “in touch with ordinary people”. Truss led on “has views similar to my own”, “principled”, “trustworthy” and “compassionate”.
Now, two weeks later, Truss leads on all measures including “looks like a prime minister in waiting”.
In head-to-head match ups, Truss leads Sunak by 7 points among all voters on who would be the best Prime Minister (27% vs 20%) and fares better against Keir Starmer than Sunak does. Truss leads Starmer by 1 point (29% vs. 28%) while Sunak trails Starmer by 24% to 28%.
Thinking about the next general elections one in seven (15%) think that the result will be a Conservative majority, and a quarter (25%) think there will be a hung Parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. Meanwhile, only 13% think there will be a Labour majority, and 22% think there will be a hung Parliament with Labour as the largest party.
The tax and inflation argument
As the Bank of England warns inflation will reach 13% in October, the public is split on the impact of tax cuts on inflation, as 24% think tax cuts would increase the inflation rate, 12% think it would decrease it and 24% think it would not make any difference. Amongst those who don’t think tax cuts have an impact on the inflation rate, seven in ten (72%) would prioritise reducing inflation, while 24% would prioritise cutting taxes.
When it comes to taxes and spend on public services, 34% think the government should keep them as they are now, just over a quarter 26% think they should be increased and 22% that they should be reduced.
Adam Drummond, head of political and social research at Opinium, said, “Compared to our last poll, Truss’s scores among 2019 Tory voters for almost all attributes are up by double digit amounts. In particular, “looks like a prime minister in waiting” has gone from net +5% to net +28% for Truss while for Sunak it has dropped from net +14% to net +6%.
“Tory voters think they’re more likely to win the next election with Truss (67%) than Sunak (58%) and when the two candidates are put in head to head match-ups against Keir Starmer among all voters, Sunak trails by 4 (essentially the same as Boris Johnson) while Truss leads by 1, although the real winner in all of these head-to-heads is “None of these” which is higher than any individual candidate.
“But in October energy prices are going to go up by 70% and the Bank of England predicts a five-quarter recession and any honeymoon the new prime minister gets is likely to be short lived.”