According to the Betfair Barometer, which takes odds from Betfair Exchange to generate a percentage chance, Boris Johnson’s likelihood of facing a vote of no confidence in February is 25% (or odds of 14/5 on Betfair Exchange), a decrease of 13% following his reshuffle.
The Prime Minister may have bought himself some time this month, but the chances of facing a vote of no confidence in March are much higher at 37% (13/8) on the Betfair Barometer.
The Chancellor Rishi Sunak remains the strong favourite at 13/8 to replace Johnson as the next Conservative leader, while the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is 5/1 and Jeremy Hunt is 6/1.
Betfair Exchange – Will Boris Johnson face a No Confidence vote in February 2022?
Yes 14/5 (25%)
No 1/3 (75%)
Betfair Exchange – Will Boris Johnson face a No Confidence vote in March 2022?
Yes 13/8 (37%)
No 2/5 (71%)
Betfair Exchange – Will Boris Johnson resign before the end of February 28th?
Yes 12% (15/2)
No 91% (1/10)
Betfair Exchange – Next Conservative leader after Boris Johnson
Rishi Sunak 13/8
Liz Truss 5/1
Jeremy Hunt 6/1
Tom Tugendhat 7/1
Penny Mordaunt 10/1
Sajid Javid 14/1
Michael Gove 14/1
Nadhim Zahawi 20/1
Dominic Raab 25/1
Ben Wallace 25/1
Priti Patel 33/1
Betfair Exchange spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said, “The Betfair Barometer gives Boris Johnson justy a 25% chance (odds of 14/5) of facing a vote of no confidence in February, which indicates the PM has bought himself some time following the reshuffle as last week he was looking at a 38% chance of facing the wrath of his peers.
“While Johnson may avoid a referendum on his premiership in February, the chances of him facing a vote of no confidence in March are significantly higher at 37% on the Betfair Barometer – suggesting this isn’t over yet.
“Punters on Betfair Exchange are backing Rishi Sunak to swap No11 for No10 and he’s the clear 13/5 favourite to replace Johnson, ahead of Liz Truss who is next at 5/1 and Jeremy Hunt is 6/1.”