Government projections are suggesting that Manchester’s hospitals risked being overwhelmed by 12 November.
The Prime Minister’s official spokesman warned on Monday that “cases in Greater Manchester continue to rise.
“In the over-60 age group cases have tripled in the most recent 15 days of full data – there were 89 cases per 100,000 on September 27 compared to 282 per 100,000 on October 12.
“Hospital admissions in Greater Manchester are doubling every nine days.”
The number of infected patients in intensive care is around 40% of that seen during the peak of the first wave in the spring.
According to the SPI-M modelling group, if you assume a 14-day doubling time, the “best case,” all free intensive care capacity will be used by 28 October, which will surpass the peak of the first coronavirus wave by 2 November.
The projections suggest that this will take up the entire current intensive care capacity by 8 November, with the entire coronavirus surge capacity by 12 November.
When the spokesman was asked if this means hospitals being overwhelmed he warned, “Yes, that’s the entire surge ICU capacity.”