The OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend with information up to September 2022, continue to indicate slowing growth in the OECD area and in most major economies dragged down by high inflation, increasing interest rates and declining share prices.
Among major OECD economies, the CLIs remain below trend and continue to point to slowing growth in Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States, and also in the euro area including France, Germany and Italy.
The CLI for Japan continues to anticipate stable growth.
Among major emerging-market economies, a loss in growth momentum is expected in China (industrial sector) and Brazil but the CLI for India continues to indicate stable growth.
The OECD CLIs are cyclical indicators based on a range of forward-looking indicators such as order books, building permits, confidence indicators, long-term interest rates, new car registrations and many more.
In the face of persistent uncertainties related to the impact of the war in Ukraine, especially in energy markets, and ongoing COVID-19 threats, the CLI components might be subject to larger-than-usual fluctuations.
As a result, the indicators should be interpreted with care and their magnitude should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of growth in economic activity.
Leave a Comment