Labour have increased their lead by 4 points in the last fortnight, gaining two points while the Conservatives dropped two, taking Labour from a 14 to an 18-point lead at 44%.
The Conservatives are now on 26%, with 20% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 now having switched their vote directly to Labour.
Sunak’s approval continues to decline
Only a quarter (26%) of the public approve of Rishi Sunak’s performance as Prime Minister, with 44% disapproving (-18 net approval), continuing the decline from -12 net approval during 12-14th April and -6 net approval on the 4-6th April.
Kier Starmer is on -3% (rounded) with 31% approving and 33% disapproving (numbers which have remained steady).
However, the two leaders remain far closer on who would be the ‘best prime minister’ with Keir Starmer at 28% and Rishi Sunak at 26%. A plurality continue to say ‘none of these’ (31%).
On “brand”? Conservatives up and Labour down (changes since 1 March 2023)
The Conservative Party brand remains in a particularly weak place, although the last month has shown early signs of improvement. Across the values polled the Conservatives were net disagree in all of them. Only a quarter of people (26%) agreed that the Conservative party has a clear sense of purpose although this is up +5 from March. On ‘knows what it stands for’ the Conservatives are -8 although this is an improvement of +7, with 39% disagreeing to 31% agreeing.
The Conservatives will be particularly concerned that only 23% trust the party to take big decisions, actually down from 24% from late October when Sunak took his post as PM. Similarly, only 22% think the party is competent (unchanged from October).
The Labour Party “brand” is also a mixed picture, with the past month showing signs of decline across all its values. The party has dropped -12% on being ‘united’ since March, with 31% agreeing to 37% disagreeing (net -6%). Labour have also dropped -11% on having a clear sense of purpose and -9% on knowing what they stand for.
People disagree and agree in equal measure (36%) on whether Labour is ‘ready for government’, although more people agreed Labour were competent (32%) than the Conservatives (22%).
Hearts and minds
Over half of people (52%) disagree that the Conservatives have the nations best interests at heart with just under a quarter (23%) agreeing. Conversely, 40% agreed that the Labour party have the nation’s best interests at heart with only 29% disagreeing.
Over half (56%) disagreed that the Conservatives represent what the people think, with 17% agreeing, while 68% disagreed that the Conservatives are in touch with ordinary people (17% agreed). This is down 4 points from March from net -44% to -48%.
For Labour, 34% agree the party represents what most people think and only 32% disagree. 41% of people agree the Labour party is in touch with ordinary people, at +11% although this is down -7% from 1 March.
James Crouch, Head of Policy & Public Affairs at Opinium said, “With just one week to go until the local elections, the Conservative Party is yet to make a significant dent in Labour’s lead according to our latest poll.
“Although Rishi Sunak has attempted to restore a basic sense of what his party stands for, the latest results show that still less a quarter of the country trusts the governing party to make big decisions. Until the public feels it can trust the government again, it is no wonder that the Conservatives are struggling to turnaround their position in the polls.”
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