The latest Ipsos Political Monitor, taken 7 to 15 September does not show a significant polling bounce for Liz Truss and the Conservatives in the new Prime Minister’s first Ipsos poll in office, although she improves on several of Boris Johnson’s final ratings as many are still to make up their mind about her.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives are more trusted than Labour on economic growth and managing inflation, but Labour are more trusted on levelling-up, improving the NHS and reducing the cost of living.
Voting intention figures for September are Labour 40% (-4 from July), Conservative 30% (nc), Lib Dem 13% (+3), Green 8% (nc), Other 9% (+1).
Labour vs Conservatives on the issues
The Conservatives are more trusted than Labour by 5 points or more to ‘grow Britain’s economy’ (+15 lead) and to ‘manage inflation’ (+6 lead). 42% now say they trust the Conservatives the most to grow the economy (+10 since June), whilst 26% choose Labour (+1). 34% trust the Conservatives the most to manage inflation (+6), compared to 28% saying the same about Labour (+1).
On the other hand, Labour are more trusted than the Conservatives by 5 points or more on a range of issues, with the biggest leads being for improving the NHS (+22 lead), reducing regional inequalities / levelling-up (+23 lead) and reducing the cost of living (+15 lead).
- Note – for protecting the environment, 29% trust the Green party the most.
Liz Truss vs Keir Starmer
Leader / government satisfaction
- 70% are dissatisfied with how the government is running the country (-4 from July), 20% are satisfied (no change).
- When asked if they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the job the new Prime Minister is doing, 44% say don’t know. 27% are satisfied with the job Liz Truss is doing and 29% dissatisfied. In his last ratings in July, a similar proportion (24%) were satisfied with Boris Johnson, but 69% were dissatisfied.
- Past Prime Ministers assuming office mid-parliament scored as follows on this first Ipsos poll:
- Boris Johnson July 19. Satisfied 31% dissatisfied 38% don’t know 31%
- Theresa May Aug 16. Satisfied 54% dissatisfied 19% don’t know 27%
- Gordon Brown July 07. Satisfied 36% dissatisfied 20% don’t know 44%
- John Major Dec 90. Satisfied 37% dissatisfied 22% don’t know 41%
- Satisfaction with Keir Starmer as Labour leader improves slightly but does not change much. 31% satisfied (+2 from July), 45% dissatisfied (-4). His net of -14 is in line with the average for leaders of the opposition going back to 1980 (-12) but this includes many who were unsuccessful.
Has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister?
- 34% agree Keir Starmer has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister (+1 from July) and 40% disagree (-1). For Liz Truss the equivalent numbers are 27% agree (+3) and 42% disagree (-1).
Who would make the most capable Prime Minister?
- When asked ‘who would make the most capable Prime Minister’, Starmer leads Truss by 4 points (40% to 36%). In July, Starmer led Truss +6 (41% vs 35%). He led Boris Johnson 51% to 31% at the time.
When comparing Liz Truss to Keir Starmer on several leadership attributes we find that Starmer leads Truss by 5 points or more for:
- ‘Understands the problems facing Britain’ (51% to 42%). Johnson was on 29% in May.
- ‘Sound judgement’ (40% to 28%). Johnson was on 17% in May.
- ‘More honest than most politicians’ (36% vs 21%). Johnson was on 9%.
- ‘Good in a crisis’ (28% to 23%). Johnson was on 31%.
- ‘Has a lot of personality’ (23% to 18%). Johnson was on 48%.
Meanwhile, Liz Truss leads Starmer by 5 points or more on being ‘out of touch with ordinary people’ (49% to 34%). However, Boris Johnson was on 64% for this measure in May 2022 so Truss’ numbers here are an improvement on that.
Truss also improves on Johnson’s scores in May for being ‘a capable leader’ (Truss 32% vs Johnson 26%) and ‘a good representative for Britain on the world stage’ (29% vs 21%). She is also less likely to be seen as ‘more style than substance’ (26%) than Johnson was in May (37%).
Keiran Pedley, Director of Politics at Ipsos UK said, “With the Conservatives ahead on growing the economy and managing inflation and Labour ahead on the cost of living, NHS and levelling-up, we can see the contours of a potential future general election campaign in these numbers.
“Meanwhile, whilst there is no obvious sign of a significant polling bounce for Liz Truss in the numbers here, they are an improvement on her predecessor’s final numbers. The new Prime Minister will hope that recent events mean that her political honeymoon is delayed rather than denied; as we head into what is likely to be a challenging winter.”