Economist warns of slow recovery as jobs wobble post Autumn Budget

Employment Hero, the global authority on employment, has today released its inaugural global Annual Jobs Report, revealing the latest trends in the UK employment sector.

The UK 2025 data is drawn from aggregated insights from more than 350,000 small businesses and 2 million employees in Australia, New Zealand, and the UK, alongside a YouGov survey of 3,635 workers, the report charts a global workforce navigating a world fraught with conflict and unease, but also opportunity for growth and reinvention.

Employment Hero UK specific data shows that the budget announcement in October 2024 has had a lasting impact on the markets employment landscape.

Over the last year, the employment rate has followed a distinct u-shaped curve. Following a sharp decline in the aftermath of the budget, where the seasonal peak in the run-up to Christmas did not materialise and a sharp dip of -0.9% was recorded in December 2024, data shows a steady recovery from February.

The UK’s employment landscape has shown signs of a significant slowdown over the last 12 months. As of July 2025, while the employment rate remains positive on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, standing at 3.1%, this growth rate has decelerated markedly. This indicates a weakening labour market compared to the same period in 2024, when the YoY growth rate was consistently hovering around 8%. This slowdown coincides with the National Insurance reforms introduced in April.

Job-hugging Britain 

Employment growth is slowly recovering, but year-on-year gains are down and new job opportunities are only just picking up. In this weaker labour market, employees are holding onto their roles and ‘job-hugging’ is on the rise.

Further research in the report – powered by YouGov – found the majority of workers (55%) are now prioritising job security, putting their ambitions on hold while they await signs of sustained labour market growth and improved business confidence. This rises to 65% among 18–34-year-olds.

The research data also reveals that the majority of employees (59%) think that the UK labour market is getting worse, while 51% do not feel confident about landing a new job within three months. This reflects wider sentiment around the intensely competitive nature of the labour market, as 40% feel there is too much competition for jobs, rising to 53% among 18–34-year-olds.

Kevin Fitzgerald, UK Managing Director at Employment Hero said: “While the labour market is showing early signs of recovery, our data shows we’ve still got a long way to go before workers feel confident again. With most people holding a negative view of the jobs market, it’s no surprise we’re seeing more ‘job hugging’ as employees look to weather the storm. But this isn’t a long-term solution. Job mobility is key for growth – both for people and businesses.

Recent changes to the tax regime have also knocked confidence. The rise in employer National Insurance Contributions has had a ripple effect right across the economy, and we’re now at a critical juncture. As we head towards the Autumn Budget, avoiding more tax changes that trigger knee-jerk reactions from businesses will be vital if we want to build on the early signs of recovery.”

Nina Skero, Chief Executive of CEBR, said: “Workers are facing a difficult balancing act – while pay growth remains strong, inflation continues to eat into real wages, and job opportunities are thinning out. With fewer roles to go around and growing competition for vacancies, Employment Hero’s data reveal that many workers are prioritising job security over ambition in an increasingly uncertain market.”