Exclusive research from The Share Centre, with responses from over 1,500 personal investors, reveals that an increasing number of people would change their vote if the EU referendum was held again today knowing what they know now.
In fact, nearly 8 per cent of personal investors would switch their vote. The real surprise though is that despite the continued uncertainty surrounding the final Brexit agreement, more than double the proportion would switch from Remain to now vote Leave (5 per cent) than would switch from Leave to Remain (2 per cent). This shift could be related to the performance of the market which has risen steadily since the EU Referendum result and personal investors may therefore feel more confident that their investments would not suffer as much as perhaps they had anticipated.
The analysis also reveals that personal investors have suffered a dramatic loss in confidence in Theresa May’s ability to negotiate a good Brexit deal. At present, less than one in five (19 per cent) have confidence in the Prime Minister when asked about her ability to deliver a strong Brexit – a number which has significantly fallen from 80 per cent immediately after the referendum and 66 per cent in July of 2017 when The Share Centre previously posed the same question to personal investors.
In regards to the ongoing negotiations, personal investors were evenly split on whether the Government should be negotiating to stay in a Customs Union arrangement. However, interestingly, nearly two thirds (63 per cent) believe that this would not satisfy the overall result of the referendum. Furthermore, investors were evenly split on whether having a Customs Union arrangement will or will not have a negative impact on the economy, with as many investors believing other trade deals will outweigh any negative impact as compared to those who believe the negative impacts of failing to negotiate such an arrangement will dominate.
Richard Stone, Chief Executive of The Share Centre, said of the findings:
“We have conducted a similar survey of personal investors views regularly over the last two years and this latest poll shows the stark loss of confidence in Theresa May’s ability to negotiate a strong Brexit deal with less than one in five personal investors now confident she can do so. However, despite this, the experience of personal investors since the EU Referendum, a period during which the stockmarket has risen to new highs, means that the balance of opinion has shifted more heavily in favour of leaving the EU with 5 per cent of personal investors saying they voted Remain but would now vote Leave – almost 1 in 10 of those who voted Remain indicating they would now change their mind.”