Bitcoin held steady above 103,000 dollars after touching its lowest levels since June.
Bitcoin found temporary support from yesterday’s stronger-than-expected ADP employment and ISM services PMI data. The modest lift in sentiment helped prevent a deeper slide, yet the broader outlook remains fragile as declining futures open interest, weakening on-balance volume in spot market, and six consecutive days of spot ETF outflows reveal persistent risk aversion.
Fading expectations of a December rate cut following the latest data add further pressure, leaving the market exposed to renewed downside.
According to CoinGlass, long liquidations have slowed after nearly 3 billion dollars were wiped out since Monday, while short liquidations have recently surpassed longs at 212 million versus 154 million. Traders continue to reduce leverage aggressively (and forced to do so), driving crypto futures open interest down to 139 billion dollars, its lowest level since July. This contraction reflects a clear retreat from speculative exposure, limiting the market’s ability to absorb volatility.
Spot-based indicators offer a similar message of caution. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded more than 900 million dollars in cumulative outflows over the past six sessions, according to SoSo Value, signalling weakening institutional appetite at a time when liquidity is already thin. Meanwhile, on-balance volume on spot markets continues its downward trajectory, approaching the lowest levels since April and indicating a lack of meaningful accumulation.
A more concerning layer of risk is emerging from Bitcoin-treasury companies, where cracks are beginning to threaten a deeper cycle downturn, or even a new crypto winter.
The first significant stress event surfaced as Sequans sold 970 bitcoin to repay maturing convertible debt, cutting its treasury from 3,234 to 2,264 bitcoin. The company framed the sale as “strategic asset reallocation,” yet the underlying mechanics suggest systemic fragility in this business model.
These DAT structures rely on rising equity valuations and healthy Multiple to Net Asset Value ratios to issue convertibles and purchase bitcoin, creating a reflexive growth loop. Once share prices fall, debt obligations tighten, and mNAV converges toward 1.0, the loop reverses and treasuries shift from asset to liability and convincing more investors to jump in is more difficult as premium shrink.
If other major DATs begin to show more weakness in the ability to attract more funding, especially with Strategy’s mNAV trending toward 1, the risk of a pronounced capitulation phase increases sharply.
Altogether, Bitcoin’s stability reflects more of a pause than a recovery. Liquidity conditions remain thin, leverage continues to unwind, and structural risks are emerging in both institutional flows and DATs holding. Without renewed accumulation or a clear macro catalyst, the market’s downside risks remain dominant, and any rebounds are likely to be short-lived within the prevailing weakening cycle that can go even way further below.
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