Bitcoin surpassed $35,000 this week and touched its highest level since May 2022 before settling near $34,131, thus increasing its gains for the year by over 90%.
This sharp increase is believed to be a reflection of the rising demand for cryptocurrencies, as Bitcoin investors anticipate the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) soon.
This anticipation is not only driving up the price of Bitcoin but also the value of other assets associated with cryptocurrencies, such as stocks in crypto asset companies and their services, which increased by nearly 14% in the last 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin, has also seen its price rise by more than 16% over the past five days.
From my perspective, one of the key factors contributing to this sharp increase is a recent federal appeals court ruling that requires the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to reconsider Grayscale Investments’ request to convert its Bitcoin Trust into an ETF.
Additionally, the BlackRock Bitcoin Futures Fund’s filing was updated, indicating the fund’s readiness for launch despite similar funds not receiving approval from the SEC.
As a result, we see increasing bullish prospects for cryptocurrency markets, which is a driving force behind Bitcoin’s rise, indicating that Bitcoin’s strength could continue in the coming days and weeks.
Bitcoin’s price may experience some corrective declines as the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is expected to release core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data today. These data serve as a measure of inflation used by the Federal Reserve and are expected to rise this time.
I believe that if the core PCE for September rises to 0.3% every month compared to the recent 0.1%, it will also lead to a monthly increase in core personal consumption expenditure and a decrease in the year-on-year core personal consumption expenditure to 3.7% compared to the previous 3.9%.
The year-on-year core personal consumption expenditure may have advanced by 0.2% every month in September, a result that should translate to a 2-point drop in the 12-month rate to 3.7%. While still relatively high, this would be the lowest rate in 28 years.
If personal consumption expenditure data come in as expected, the impact on the cryptocurrency market could be significantly negative. This is because an increase in the PCE can raise market expectations of current interest rates remaining high for a longer period than expected.
Consequently, higher interest rates can deter investors from pouring their money into riskier assets to mitigate potential losses. Given that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies fall into the riskier asset category, investors may withdraw from the cryptocurrency market, unlike precious metals like gold.