SNP vote share is holding up, despite two in five, or 43% of Scottish adults saying they believe that Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon deliberately misled Parliament when saying she forgot about meeting Alex Salmond’s former chief of staff, Geoff Aberdein, on 29 March 2018.
According to a SAVANTA COMRES poll, just a quarter (25%) of Scots believe that she genuinely forgot. Unsurprisingly, this figure jumps to half (47%) among 2016 SNP voters, and plummets to just four per cent among Conservative.
Of those that believe Sturgeon deliberately misled Parliament, two thirds (67%) believe that this was done to protect herself, nearly two in five (37%) believe this was done to protect the SNP, and one in five (18%) believe this was to protect Salmond himself.
New Holyrood Voting Intention shows the discrete levels of change in Scotland since our last August poll.
Minor fluctuations in voting intention demonstrate the scale of the task that both Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour face in chipping away at the SNP’s frontrunner status, ahead of elections in May next year.
Savanta ComRes Holyrood voting intention (Constituency Vote)
| 10 October | Change since 19 August | |
| SNP | 50% | -1 |
| Conservative | 23% | -1 |
| Labour | 18% | +1 |
| Liberal Democrat | 6% | – |
| Other | 2% | – |
Savanta ComRes Holyrood voting intention (List Vote)
| 10 October | Change since 19 August | |
| SNP | 41% | -2 |
| Conservative | 21% | – |
| Labour | 18% | +2 |
| Green | 11% | +1 |
| Liberal Democrat | 7% | -1 |
| Other | 1% | -1 |
Elsewhere in the poll, support amongst Scots for independence in a hypothetical independence referendum stays above 50%, but down 1 point since our last August poll.
Savanta ComRes hypothetical IndyRef2 voting intention
| 10 October | Change since 19 August | |
| Yes | 53% | -1 |
| No | 47% | +1 |
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