Tories maintain lead but four in 10 voters may change mind

The Conservatives maintain a comfortable lead over Labour according to the latest Ipsos MORI Political Monitor. The poll shows the Conservatives on 44%, Labour on 28%, the Liberal Democrats on 16%, the Brexit Party on 3% and the Greens on 3%.  These numbers take into account reallocating vote intentions in seats where the Brexit Party, Liberal Democrats, Greens and Plaid Cymru are not standing.

Brexit is seen as the top issue helping voters decide which party they’ll vote for with 63% mentioning it (note these are spontaneous, top-of-mind responses, not prompted). Brexit is followed by the NHS (mentioned by 41%), education (21%), taxation and protecting the environment (both 11%), and managing the economy (9%).  Brexit is particularly important to Conservative and Liberal Democrat supporters (76% and 77% respectively), while Labour supporters are just as likely to pick the NHS (by 48% to 45% saying Brexit).

The new poll also reveals:

• Three in five (59%) of voters say they’ve made up their mind on who they’ll vote for – one in five (40%) say they may change their mind.  In May 2017, 32% said they might change their mind.
• Those who say they’ll vote Conservative are surer of their vote than those voting Labour. Seven in ten (71%) Conservative supports say they’ve definitely decided compared with 54% of Labour supporters. More Liberal Democrats supporters say they may change their mind than are definitely decided (by 60% to 40%).
• Labour voters who may change their mind are most likely to consider the Liberal Democrats while Liberal Democrat voters who may change their mind are most likely to consider Labour (around a third of each pick the other party). Conservatives who may change their mind are split between the Brexit Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party.
• Most Britons (70%) say they’ll vote for the party that best represents their views – slightly fewer what we saw in the run up to the 2017 and 2015 elections (75% in May 2017 and 85% in May 2015). Just 14% say they’ll vote for a party to try and keep another party out (although this rises to 23% of those who say they will vote Liberal Democrat).
• This month, we also asked voters to say how important to their vote were parties, their policies and their leaders, by allocating ten points across each.  Party policies is the most important thing according to Britons when deciding how to vote (allocating on average 4.6 points out of 10) while parties and leaders are a joint second (2.7 points on average each).  Policies are particularly important to Labour and LibDem supporters, while Conservatives are the most likely to place importance on the leaders.
• Nearly nine in ten (87%) say that it is either very or fairly important to them who wins the election, including 64% who say it is very important.  This is the highest ‘very important’ score we have seen at this stage of a campaign.
• One in five (20%) think a hung parliament would be a good thing for the country while nearly seven in ten (72%) think it would be a bad thing.  Liberal Democrat supporters are split – 48% think it would be good if no party gains an overall majority, 47% think it would be bad.