If the Conservatives win the general election in May, a further one million public sector workers will be sacked by early 2020.
That’s according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the independent government body set up to make economic forecasts and analyses.
The OBR writes in its report accompanying the Autumn Statement that the one million reduction in public sector headcount over the next six to seven years represents 20% of current headcount.
In total, 1.3 million public sector workers would have lost their jobs from early 2011 to early 2020, if the Conservatives remain in power after the general election and follow through with their plans, according to OBR analysis.
The OBR has made the job reduction forecast by looking at what George Osborne’s Autumn Statement proposals would mean in practice.
The chancellor was notably light on details of how his £30bn further cuts in public spending would play out over the next few years.
He hasn’t even shared plans with the OBR.
Instead, the body has had to extrapolate projections from the overall cuts announced, “in the absence of specific workforce plans,” it explains in its report.
It explains how it has reached the one million people figure in detail on pages 81-82 here, in case you’re interested.
The OBR says it expects the fall in public sector employment to be offset by a growth in market employment of two million.
But that probably won’t be much solace for public sector workers today.
The chancellor has called coverage of the implications of his proposed cuts “totally hyperbolic”.
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