Oil prices volatile amid geopolitical risks and production increases

Crude oil futures remained volatile as traders reacted to the OPEC+ decision and geopolitical risks.

Potential disruptions to Russian crude shipments to India and other countries could support the market as Trump’s secondary tariff deadline approaches.

If they materialize, the sanctions could limit the availability of Russian crude on the market and drive prices to the upside.

At the same time, OPEC+ announced its decision to raise production by 547,000 barrels per day from September, as expected. The organization’s move to increase output aimed at reclaiming market share after prior cuts. Whilst the additional supply could weigh on prices, the organization’s wait-and-see stance could limit downside risks as it remains prepared to change course if the market direction requires it, fueling some uncertainty.

Traders could also remain attentive to economic developments in major oil-consuming countries, in particular after a weaker-than-expected job market report in the US fueled concerns about the strength of the economy. Attention could turn to PMI and crude inventory data.