Indyref ten years on: The vote has narrowed with the ‘no’ side on just a 2-point lead

A decade on from the Scottish independence referendum, research from global insights agency Opinium exclusively for The Sunday Times reveals that if a new vote was held tomorrow, the ‘no’ side would only have a 2-point lead.

In the 2014 referendum, 44.7% voted ‘yes’, and 55.3% voted ‘no’.

When asked if Scotland should be an independent country, just under half (47%) would choose ‘no’ while 45% would pick ‘yes’. Almost one in ten (8%) would be undecided.

Younger voters are more likely to want independence, with 63% of 16 to 34 year olds saying they would choose ‘yes’, while the same number (63%) of over 65s would say ‘no’.

However, despite being on a knife-edge, constitutional questions are low on Scottish voters’ agenda with just 8% saying they will decide their vote at the next Scottish Parliament election based on devolution and independence. Health (25%), the economy (18%) and immigration (11%) are bigger issues for voters. However, a quarter (27%) say they would support a party partially due to their stance on devolution and independence, rising to 36% of current ‘Yes’ voters.

Potential impact of Scottish independence

If the country became independent, Scots think tax rates (47%), cross-border business for companies (43%), and defence & security (42%) would get worse.

Views are more mixed on the potential economic impact, with 42% thinking the state of Scotland’s economy would get worse, but 37% thinking it would get better. Almost two in five (39%) think Scotland’s environmental and climate issues would improve under an independent Scotland.

Half (49%) think Scotland should be able to hold a referendum without needing UK Government permission, however, 37% do not agree with this.

Almost three in five (57%) think Scotland should have a second referendum – with a quarter (24%) wanting one by the end of 2025, and a further 18% by the end of 2030. A third (32%) don’t think they should ever hold another independence vote.

James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium said, “Unionism retains only a narrow lead in the polls, as voters appear unenthused by the main arguments the No camp made against independence a decade ago.

“Despite this, there is relatively little policy-wise that Scots think would actually get better, and the ideal solution for most seems to be remaining in the Union. It is up to Unionists to put forward a positive vision for what an empowered Scotland within the UK looks like.”